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Re: Baseball: Crunch Time (non-Strasburg edition)

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Thu, Aug 23 2012 12:42 PM (5 replies)
  • JaLaBar
    1,254 Posts
    Thu, Aug 16 2012 12:24 PM

    Pennant Races and Playoff spots

     

    So, it's getting to crunch time.  Pennant races, award races.  Wild card spots up for grabs.

     

    In the National League, we have the Reds seemingly beginning to run away with the Central, opening up a 6 game lead over the Pirates and Cards, both tied for second and tied for the second wild card berth.  Milwaukee and Chicago are non-factors, and the Astros may as well have moved to the AL this season.

    In the East, the Braves have the third best record in the NL, and won 14 of 17, yet lost ground to the Nationals, who have the major's best record and lead the Braves by 4.5.  The Braves do, however, lead the wild card race by 4 games.  The Nats have the major's best starting rotation, best run differential, and lead the major's in run's scored since the AS break.  However, they lose one of their top pitchers in a few weeks.  We'll see whether that gives the Braves a break trying to catch Washington.

    The closest race, with the most drama is the NL West.  The Dodgers lead the Giants by a game, and the loser of that race looks to be out of luck when it comes to the post-season.  The Giants have been led by another of baseball's best rotations, but suffered a big blow to their chances when they effectively lost Melky Cabrera due to a drug violation.  Also hurting the Giants chances are the inexplicable struggles of Lincecum.  The Dodgers, with Kemp seemingly back healthy and another very good rotation, now would seem to have the inside position in this race.

     

    In the AL, things are a bit more wide open, with the Yankees and Rangers both holding 6 game leads, the Yankees over Baltimore and Tampa.  The Yanks are hurt by the loss of Sabathia, but they still should be strong enough to hang on to this division.  I think Tampa will probably edge Baltimore when it is said and done.  The Orioles seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors, having a negative run differential and one of the shakiest rotations in the league.  It has been some big upsurges in their younger position players and a lights out bullpen that has propelled them, along with the best record in baseball in one run games.  Boston will not be a factor unless it's as spoiler, the Blue jays even less so.

    The Rangers have been cruising for much of the season, repelling the Angels whenever they get close.  This race still could get interesting, but I expect the Rangers, like the Yankees in the East, have too much firepower to be overtaken in the West.  The real interesting race here is the race for second, with the almost-shocking A's tied with the Angels, and both on the outside looking in at the wild card race.

    The best race here right now is the Central, where the White Sox own a two game lead over the Tigers.  Quiz: Name 3 current White Sox, quick?  I get to two, Sale and Konerko.  But they are leading the Verlander, Cabrera, Fielder Tigers by 2.  And the Tigers, with all that name appeal, are on the outside of the wild card race with the Pujols, Weaver, Wilson, Trout, Trumbo Angels.  While the only competitions in the NL for a playoff berth revolve around the Pitt-St. L race and the LA-SF race, in the AL the wild card race is wide open, with Baltimore and Tampa on the inside and Detroit, California, and Oakland within 1.5 games.

    Predictions:

    The Nats, if you plug John Lannan's 2011 stats into Strasburg's slot (Lannan is Strasburg's likely replacement), still have one of ther top 3 rotations in baseball.  They still have scored the most runs since the All-Star game and will get their All-Star SS back any day.  I don't see ATL catching them.  The Reds should win the Central, and I like the Dodgers, especially with Cabrera's suspension, to win the West, with the Giants watching the post-season (sorry mb).  The Braves will grab the first wild card.  I think the Pirates will hold off St Louis and grab the second wild-card, making the post-season for the first time in ages, but it would not at all surprise me to see the veteran Cards win that race.

    The Yanks own the East now.  The Red Sox need to rebuild or reload, the Orioles are young and promising and might win a division some day, and the Rays are in much the same position right now.  But right now the Yanks are the only dog in this fight.  The Tigers are gonna edge Chicago, I have a feeling, but I also have a feeling Chicago is gonna nab a wild card.  They have said that they aren't gonna back off Sale, and that will help their chances.  The West, unless the Angels have a wonderous surge and the Rangers collapse (it's been done: see last year twice), it's Texas division.  The Angels seem to have the talent for such a surge, but with Trumbo slumping I don't see it.  Texas should hold on to the West.  I do think the Angels will grab the other wild card.  Quality wins out, and I think the Angels are a better team than Baltimore, Tampa, or Oakland right now.

    Awards races next post (see this is what happens when I smoke a big fatty and start writing lol)

  • JaLaBar
    1,254 Posts
    Thu, Aug 16 2012 1:28 PM

    Individual Awards:

    MVP:

    Let's start with the NL MVP, which is wide open.  Right now I give the edge to Andrew McCutcheon of Pittsburgh, with a couple of caveats:

    If Joey Votto comes back strong and finishes strong, he could easily win this award, especially if the Pirates fade from the post-season race while the Reds continue rolling.

    Matt Kemp has the best slash numbers in the majors, and if he gets the ABs to qualify for a batting title, he has to be taken into consideration.

    Buster Posey, playing the only position more demanding than McCutcheon's CF, has put up numbers way above the average for a catcher.

    Then there are several members of the Cards, and David Wright from the Mets that deserve consideration.  Melky Cabrera probably would have been in the top half dozen candidates, but no longer is a factor in this race.

     

    In the AL, the injuries don't play such a factor.  It really seems a three horse race, and one of the horses is attempting to pull double duty for just the third time ever.  I like Miguel Cabrera myself, but the season the Mike Trout is having in California is pretty amazing.  We'll get to this later, but they may as well rename the AL Rookie of the Year trophy, as Mike Trout may be having the best rookie season in the history of the majors.  And my reasons for liking Cabrera contradict myself.  Despite Trout's play, and having last year's RoY, and Pujols, and possibly the AL Cy Young favorite this year as well, the Angels have underperformed.  I think Cabrera has done more, including the forced move to third and playing passably at a new and demanding position, to help the Tigers win than Trout.  But... earlier I chided the Tigers for being, right now, outside the playoffs looking in to the no-name White Sox.  So, for Al MVP, I have no choice but to pick...

    Robinson Cano of the Yankees.  Teixeira has his moments, but he is a declining player.  As is Jeter, who has struggled mightily at times this year.  A-Rod has had trouble staying in the lineup.  Granderson has hit below .250 all season.  Cano has been the Rock that has kept the Yankee offensive juggernaut moving this season.  Right now, he's deserving of the award.

    Cy Young:

    In the National League, this is a very interesting and wide open race, for a number of reasons.  First, the front runner would be the first primarily knuckleball-thrower to ever win a Cy Young award.  R.A. Dickey, who would also be a great story of redemption (as if he wasn't already that), has had the best season in the area that usually most sways voters, Won-Loss record, but there are a number of other challengers.  Cueto of the Reds has been fantastic, All-Star snub noted, and is right behind Dickey.  Washington has a three headed monster in Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez that all have numbers that would put them in the discussion.  Stras is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA, leads the NL in Ks and all major league starters in K/9.  Zimmermann is 9-6 but leads the NL in ERA and the majors in QS.  Gio has the highest ERA at 3.19 but is 15-6 and leads the NL in OBA and the majors in HR rate.  And then there are the closers.  Chapman and Kimbal.  Both have been lights out, with ERAs under 1.30.  Kimbal has actually had the better WHiP, at a disgustingly nasty 0.65, but Chapman has given up one (1)... that's right... one ER against the NL this season.  One earned run scored by the entire League against him.  I like Dickey for the award, but in the closer position, Chapman may be the closest thing to unhittable anyone has ever seen.

    In the AL, some very good candidates as well.  Jered Weaver has had a phenomenal year, leading the majors in ERA and 15-3 (I think).  His home/road splits are a negative though, as he is lights-out at home, but much more hittable on the road.  Price of Tampa has faced the toughest competition of any major league starter (avg. OPS .750) and is third in the AL in ERA and top 10 in IP and Ks.  Verlander leads the majors in Ks, IP, and has been his usual dominant self.  He may actually be a better pitcher this year than last, despite the lesser record.  Chris Sale and King Felix Hernandez round out the contenders, perhaps a bit behind the top 3 though Felix will get a great bump from his perfect game.  Sale has had his innings watched somewhat and I don't think will be close.  I see Weaver taking home this award this year, with Verlander a close second.

    ROY:

    No, I am not here to advocate for Bryce Harper in the NL.  It really is a shame for him that he got called up when he did.  I think it would have really helped him to have faced Triple A pitching for a full season, or close (late call-up like Trout last year).  I actually think that facing major league pitching this early will help him long run, but as far as the RoY, he'd have had a better chance next year.  This year, right now, I have Wade Miley winning the award just ahead of Frazier of Cincinatti, with the caveat that Frazier would have a better chance if he had played full time all year.  But he has really shown as Votto's replacement while the MVP candidate was out with injury.  Mike Fiers has played well, but with too few starts and innings to win the award.

    This is not a race in the AL so much as a coronation.  The question isn't whether Mike Trout is the AL Rookie of the Year, the question is where his rookie season ranks all-time.  A shame for Cespedes, Middlebrooks (pre-injury), Diamond, Montero and others who never had a  horse in this race.  In other seasons, Cespedes may have run away with this thing.  But this year, Trout is king.

     

    MOY:

    Interesting races here too.  My pick, and I may be biased, in the NL is Davey Johnson.  The Nats have dealt with key pieces of the offense missing with injury, with a predominance of youth, and with all the publicity of Harper's call-up and Strasburg's innings count and have basically led their division, considered one of baseball's best before the season, all year.  Clint Hurdle would be my runner up. though he could pass Davey in my mind if the Pirates could surge and really challenge the Reds in the Central.  Dusty Baker and Mattingly round out my top 4, though they aren't really in this race to me.  The Nats were supposed to contend for the wild card, not win 100 games.  To me, that makes the award Davey Johnson's.  And for the record, I vote for Mike Rizzo, Nats GM, as Executive of the Year.

    In the AL, well... three teams and their managers stand out, with a little shout out to one other.  First, I can't choose between these three, and am glad I have some time before I do have to.  Buck Showalter has kept the Orioles in contention all year through no means identifiable by man.  There is no way you can have the kind of run differential they have, the starting pitching that they have, and win unless the manager is a magician.  Another guy making magic is Melvin of Oakland, who has the As challenging for a wild card, tied with their much more glamorous and expensive division neighbor to the south, the Angels.  But my vote right now has to go to Ventura in Chicago.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for them and they lead the much more glamorous and expensive Tigers by two games.  That's enough to get my vote.  I don't think enough credit goes to managers of winning teams some times.  The Yankees this season have dealt with slumps from some key contributors like Jeter, Martin, Teixiera, injuries to Sabathia, Rivera, A-Rod, Pettite, and just keep humming right along.  I don't think Joe Girardi gets enough credit as the steady hand on that ship.  Not enough to win the award, but still kudos.

    Ok, enough of my babble.... Baseball fans, discuss!

  • JaLaBar
    1,254 Posts
    Wed, Aug 22 2012 10:03 AM

    Interesting... OK, I'll talk to myself.

    I really think, if Strasburg weren't getting shut down in 25 innings or so, he'd have a real shot at the NL Cy Young award this season.

    15 - 5  2.85ERA  1.11WHiP (tied for 5th)  .224OBA (7th)  183K (1st *in 1471/3IP)  11.33K/9 (1st)  4.26 K/BB ratio (7th)

    I've seen the best pitchers of the last 40 years.  When they were on, Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson were the most unhittable, Roger Clemens was the consistent best (enhanced or not) and at the top of his game, Pedro Martinez was the best (1999 & 2000).  It is my belief that, if his arm holds up, Strasburg will end up as good or better than any of the above.

  • YankeeJim
    25,827 Posts
    Wed, Aug 22 2012 11:55 AM

    JaLaBar:
    Interesting... OK, I'll talk to myself

    Meh. I thought about picking your Yankee synopsis apart but I have the advantage of listening to every game, sometimes twice, including pre and post game shows, win or lose while you're subject to what you read about them. Just like me and the Stras situation. I mostly know what I know from you.

    I do have a question for you about that. Every kid that plays the game dreams of making it to the World Series. It's the stuff of dreams. Now here's arguably one of the 3 best pitchers in the game today and he's looking at sitting on the sidelines, watching his dream fall apart thanks to some f'n bean counter. What if this is as close as he's ever going to get? I would think he'd be fuming. How about speaking up and saying "No way." Do you think he would get anywhere?

  • JaLaBar
    1,254 Posts
    Thu, Aug 23 2012 12:34 PM

    Well... it's funny.  Stras' dad went directly to Mike Rizzo, the Nats GM and asked him what he was thinking keeping Stephen out of the playoffs.  Rizzo explained his position based on what the doctors and studies has shown, and Strasburg's dad accepted it.  Scott Boras, Strasburg's agent is 100% behind Rizzo's decision.  And Rizzo has taken all the heat on himself, saying "This is my decision.  When I feel the time has come, I will take the baseball away from Stephen and he won't pitch any more this season".  Stephen says the plan was all explained before the season, and now they don't talk to him about it because they just want him to focus on going out every five days and pitch.

    The thing is, there are no guarantees either way.  None.  He could continue to pitch, blow up his elbow and the Nats lose in the first round anyway.  The Nats look strong enough that they have a shot even with Strasburg nailed to the bench.  He could sit out and blow up his arm next spring.  So what is happening is, for the sake of the team and Strasburg's long-term health, Rizzo is going to err on the side of caution, with the blessing of Strasburg's father and agent apparently.  What usually happens?  They ask "If he continues, could he suffer permanent damage?"  In this case, the doctors said "Yes".  And that's the thing.  I have heard tons of former players and managers and coaches and commentators, all of whom have had long careers, made their fortunes and fame, all want the Nats to keep pitching him.  Haven't heard a single doctor, a single orthopedist or rheumatologist or elbow specialist say the Nats are doing the wrong thing.  Not one.  So yeah, it will suck for Strasburg to not be able to play in the post-season.  But he'll get over it.  And if he stays healthy we could see a truly dominant season from the kid next year, using this season's motivation.  I have seen a couple say "If they don't let him pitch in this post-season, he should wait until his contract is out and say "I'll take this arm somewhere they'll let me pitch".  Really?  You really think an adult, with adults advising him, will think "I don't want to be on a team that puts my long-term health and well being ahead of winning?"  Really?!?

    And no, there are no guarantees.  But from watching this team all season, looking at the ages and contracts of the players, if there is a team in the major leagues right now that I think will be in contention for a number of pennants and World Series, it's the Nats.  Not only that, but due to their willingness to open the purse strings and this very situation with Strasburg, the Nats are gonna be a destination spot for free agents, maybe not to the extent of the Yanks, but still a destination spot.

  • JaLaBar
    1,254 Posts
    Thu, Aug 23 2012 12:42 PM

    Separate topic:  How freaking good is Mike Trout?  People have stopped asking whether he's the RoY and asking whether this is the best rookie season ever.  Or even where it ranks all time period.  He's on pace for .340+BA  .400+OBP  .600+SLG with 100+RBIs, 125+R, 38HR, and 60SB at a 90%+ success rate (full season projections), and plays an outstanding CF.  It's the combination of average, power, and baserunning plus the highlight reel defense make this a season for the ages.

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