There is an algorithm for "chance", discounting all other factors include forgiveness , things can still go "off". No real way to know that. The game itself is simply ballistic equations, but the "Luck" factor and the algorithms that make it up is proprietary,
Actually the new voice comments give hint to how that works. When you get a "good shot" comment" you are looking at how the forgiveness factor and the luck factor intermingle.
When stuff goes wrong on a ding , or when stuff goes right on a bad shot is the best ways to see the limits/of how the game works.