mantis0014: I always thought.... if you shoot under your ave. then it will drop... this is after saturation, but that is not true.
Our usual thinking of average movement is obscured by two things here:
- the non-linearity of a saturated average. You'd not have to look at the actual average value but a the relation between the score last played and the highest score in the mix. So, if a 31 is still in your 500 best scores, the recent 30 will drop the average by 2/500 (double figures: 62 - 60 = 2).
This brings us to the next oddity:
- the rule of big numbers / denominators. The least possible movement, 1/500, is 0.004 in the average, a value likely to disappear in the two-decimal display. Thus, you may play a 29 one day and see no movement, but the 30 next day will do it.