I decided on this strategy when I got frustrated at my approach shots always going through the green, landing short in sand/rough and even when I played a good approach shot, I would often be 20ft or more from the hole.
So I asked myself, "can I be more scientific about this?"
The results were incredible. I took 4-5 shots off my average round and set records at every course within 10 days of perfecting it. My 'distance from pin' stats went from 25ft in the 10 rounds before I started to 14ft in the last ten rounds I played (once I'd perfected it). Now, it will take some time: it took me about 8-10 rounds before I ironed out the creases, so you need to be a little patient.
Maybe this is what others do, but I've never seen it laid out like this and thought I'd try. I'm probably re-inventing the wheel somewhat, but maybe this post will be useful for those who want a whole-picture view.
THE THEORY
You cannot control what happens to a ball after it lands, one thing you do have much more control over is when the ball is in the air. Carry is far more important than total distance. Approach summed up in one sentence: STOP THINKING ABOUT WHERE YOU WANT THE BALL TO END UP, THINK ONLY OF WHERE YOU WANT IT TO LAND.
Requirement: you need to accurately determine your shot percentage. With this approach, you need to know how to give your shot 83%, not 85%. I use a little piece of card that slots into the bottom of the monitor, always play full screen, so it's always the same size. 5 minutes prep time, cost, about 12 cents I guess. Lasts: for ever. Card is about 6 inches long, nine larger narrow-nib marker pen marks along it for percentages 10>90, with smaller 5% marks between them.
Here are the steps:
1. Work out your clubs' carry distances, for all percentages 90 to 100%.
2. Work out 'average' roll for each club.
3. Work out wind effect on each club.
4. Are you going up or down hill?
5. Are you landing on a flat green?
6. Putting it all together.
1: YOUR CLUBS' CARRY DISTANCE
The first thing you need to do is calibrate all your equipment. I don't have expensive equipment: I use Max Meter L47+ clubs which cost me about 1900 I think. And I use starter balls, never used anything else. Yes, that will effect certain things, particularly part 2, average roll, but that's why we do calibration :)
Another thing to say now - every shot is played with full back spin. This reduces the unknowns that happen between landing and stopping.
Go to a course where you know light wind means light wind, i.e. not Royal St Georges! I used Pinehurst and did all my club calibration with a 1-3mph wind directly right to left, so won't have affected length at all, maybe a yard or so.
For every club, 3w down to PW, you want accurate landing figures for 90/95/100%, all dinged perfectly. For upper and lower clubs (3w/PW), you also want 80/85%. Yes it takes time, it took me maybe an hour. You need to watch replays from up ahead to accurately see when the ball actually hits the turf, this is all you're interested in, when it lands. What it does after that, you don't care. Remember, this is about CARRY.
Here are my figures for my clubs. At first, I recorded also the 'final distance', but within a few rounds of playing this new system, I found I was never using those figures. Tossed them out the window, they are not important. To keep this system to its purest, think only in terms of carry.
(Five numbers given for 80/85/90/95/100%, three figures given for 90/95/100%)
DRIVER - 275 YDS
carry 192 202 218 247 253
3 WOOD - 230 YDS
carry 150 164 182 196 210
IRONS
3i - 200 YDS
carry 156 168 183
4i - 190 YDS
carry 144 158 171
5i - 180 YDS
carry 143 153 165
6i - 170 YDS
carry 128 139 153
7i - 155 YDS
carry 123 134 146
8i - 140 YDS
carry 118 126 135
9i - 125 YDS
carry 105 114 122
pw - 110 YDS
carry 75 85 93 102 108
Now, those are my clubs, yours will be different. Even if you have my clubs, you'll probably find your distances a yard more or less. Remember, I had 1-3mph left wind at Pinehurst, when you do this calibration, make sure the wind is as low as possible, and certainly not over the shoulder or in your face, which will affect club reach.
You have your clubs' figures. Onto the next part.
2. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE ROLL FOR EACH CLUB
To use this system, you need to think in terms of a club's flight trajectory. It's very important for part four too, the uphill/downhill question. When a ball is falling to earth, it doesn't do it in a straight line, it's a parabola.
A 9i will hit the ground at a much steeper angle (let's say 80-85 degrees) than a 3i which might hit at 60-70 degrees. (These are figures for illustration, I don't want some golf ball rocket scientist taking me to task on my degrees figures!) As a consequence, as we all see, a 3w will roll much more on landing than a 9i. So now we need to see what the average roll is.
Now, I want to say something at this point. This is something I dedicated quite a bit of time to when I was developing this system. Almost as much as the first part. I went to the 10th hole at Bethpage, which is nice and level (fairway and green on same level) and smacked in about a hundred iron shots from varying distances to get lots of data. Ultimately though, wind/lie are actually more dominant as far as effect on ball once it lands, but I present this data to you in any case. It's not mind blowing in any way. PW and 9i stop quickly, 3i rolls a bit. I don't think the Nobel committee will be that interested in these findings.
3 WOOD - 230 YDS
aim to land: 26-30 yds before pin
IRONS
3i - 200 YDS
aim to land: 23-25 yds before pin
4i - 190 YDS
aim to land: 15-19 yds before pin
5i - 180 YDS
aim to land: 13 yds before pin
6i - 170 YDS
aim to land: 10 yds before pin
7i - 155 YDS
aim to land: 6-10 yds before pin
8i - 140 YDS
aim to land: 2-3 yds before pin
9i - 125 YDS
aim to land: 1-2 yds before pin
pw - 110 YDS
aim to land: 0-1 yd before pin
Well, I was happy to see a gradual increase in the figure, it meant I was doing something right. Remember, this is with starter balls and an "OK" set of clubs. Your clubs and balls might be very different.
This means in a low wind situation, you can land a 6i 10 yards from the flag on a level green and the ball will end up within a yard of the hole - it really works, it's as accurate as putting!
But, alas....
3. WORK OUT WIND EFFECT
....God invented wind.
These figures I got from elsewhere as to how much each club is effected by wind. The percentage refers to the % of the wind figure that you must add on for headwind or subtract for tailwind.
Presuming a 20mph headwind:
3i 100% so add 20yds
4i 90%
5i 80%
6i 75%
7i 70%
8i 65%
9i 60%
pw 60%
sw 45%
lw 33%
64w 25% so add 5yds
I don't think they're quite spot on, I think they might be out by as much as 10/15% for some clubs. I've already begun altering one or two figures, but I present them to you here as I found them originally. Remember, with your clubs and your balls, they might be perfect or 30% out.
Then of course, you have winds that are diagonal. A 20mph wind coming at you from 10 o'clock might have a 7-8mph headwind component, one from 11 o'clock would have a 13/14mph headwind component.
4. Are you going uphill or downhill?
This was the last piece of the jigsaw to fit into place and sort of blew my mind a bit when I saw the effects even on the extreme clubs like the 3w and PW.
Your instinct, as in putting, is to think "it's uphill, I need more oomph" or vice versa. No...it's the opposite and here's why.
Going back to our parabola:
Let's say a 9i hits the turf at 80 degrees.
That is fairway at sea level to green at sea level. It's a level shot. Remember, the ball is moving in a parabola, not a straight line. Imagine you hit a 9i off a cliff into the deep blue Pacific waters. Eventually, that ball, even in a windless situation, will cease to have forward momentum and it will drop like a stone, straight into the waters far below you, 90 degrees. That is what it's like hitting a 9i into a very low green. It will drop like a stone and there will be no roll forward.
Let's imagine a 9i peaks at about 35yds altitude (http://web4homes.com/golf/Trajectory%20all%20clubs.jpg). At that altitude, it has an angle of zero, in other words, parallel to the ground. For an instant, at that it's travelling parallel to the ground 35yds below it. Then it starts to fall and that angle leaps up.
35yds - 0 degrees (travels parallel to ground, peak altitude)
20yds - 40 degrees
15yds - 50 degrees
10yds - 60 degrees
5yds - 70 degrees
0yds - 80 degrees
-10yds - 85 degrees
-20yds - 90 degrees (falling vertically, perpendicular to ground)
Again, these figures are only illustrative. But what this shows us is that firing a 9i into an elevated green means it's landing angle will be much less and will therefore roll much more - so you need to throttle back! A ball landing at 90 degress will stay where it lands (presuming it lands on a more or less level green). This effects even clubs such as 3w and 3i. A ball you expect to roll on 20 yards might roll only a few if it's landing on a very low green relative to the fairway.
Now, we all know the basics of elevation, that you add/subtract a yard for every 3ft of elevation. So aiming at a pin that is 21ft above the ball, you need to add 7yds to the distance. But it also has an effect on the roll for reasons explained above.
5. Are you landing on a flat green?
This effects quite a small percentage of shots - the wind and elevation are much bigger effects. It's something you'll have to take into account on a few approach shots.
6. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER WITH ILLUSTRATED EXAMPLES
Let's play the 10th at Bethpage.
In this first photo, you see where I aim. Note I haven't put backspin on yet - all shots are played with backspin in this method. I don't aim for the flag, I do all calculations based on getting to where the aim point is, in this example about 10yds before the pin because that is what you do for a 6i...see table in Part 2, Average Roll, above. My aim is to get as close as possible to that point I've marked at the front of the green. It's close to the rough/fringe, but it's about 3yds on...there's room in there to do what I want. It's quite a tough pin to get close to from that distance because of that front edge. In the past, I would have gone probably into the back rough or just inside it, with a very tough 20-30ft putt, or maybe I would have got brave and ended up short. But let's see.
So I want to land on that aiming point. It's 142yds. 1ft elevation is negligible. 2-4mph headwind is almost negligible, let's add a yard to make 143. Now that's the carry I want. 143 yards. On the chart in Part 1, 143 is about 96% on a 6i. Using my card meter, I play the shot 96%, a pixel or two over the 95% mark.
here's where I land:
Pretty damn close to my aim point (I missed the ding by a pixel or so). Now let's see the roll, which we expect for a 6i to be 10yds.
Rolled 12yds, maybe because of the slight elevation of the green, probably more so for the topography of the green. We only deal in averages, not absolutes. At no point during this process have I looked at the final distance each club has, it has no interest to me, my sole aim is to get to the aim point of 142yds, 143yds with wind, the rest takes care of itself. I have a simple 7-footer for a birdie. Mission accomplished.
Now, let's see a tougher one. Hole 9 at Oakmont. The idea here is to see how accurate we can be. We have no green at all to stop the ball in. It's an elevated green which means it will already roll more than we expect (see Part 4). Here's my aim point, I have nothing to work with and aim to miss the front edge by mere feet.
How far to carry. 114yds distance, plus another 6yds for elevation of 18ft. The wind is negligable, let's take off a yard...final yardage = 119. On a 9i, this is 97-98% (see table in Part 1). We would expect a 9i only to roll about 2 yards (see Part 2) but due to it being elevated (and very elevated!), it will roll a lot more, hence our need to get it down on the ground ASAP.
Let's see where it lands:
Pretty damn good! That was 97% on a 9i, dinged perfectly. Let's see how far it rolls on an elevated green:
It rolled 7 yards due to it being an elevated green (see Part 4) and left me with a 5-6 footer.
You can be this accurate using this method, I've landed balls inside 1-2yd strips of green.
CONCLUSION
These two examples should help you see the benefits of the system. Carry is king, nothing else matters. Once you are dealing with stronger head and tailwinds, the calculations you have to do are more complicated...you get 3 irons acting like a PW once you fire into a 20mph headwind onto a sunken green, but once you know what to expect, it takes the guesswork out of it. I know why that's happening, because the headwind kills the forward momentum of the shot and even 3w and 3i shots are dropping like a stone onto the green.
Often, I make my calculations according to those factors outlined above and see I'm using even 2 clubs more or less than I normally would have...and it all makes sense why I was finishing through the green or 30yds short.
The method is not perfected yet. I'll play at some course and see a shot grabbed by a wind that didn't happen at another course, those are local events you take note of. Long story short, every course I've shot a record on in the last couple of weeks, my to-pin average has halved and my meat and drink putts now are 5-15ft, not 27ft beasts.
And, final point, it doesn't take much longer to play a shot. Once you get a feel for it all, it's not much different to what I used to do, but you do have to have some patience and the first round or two using this system, you'll play some damn ugly shots as well as some gems. Do it on practice, replay, see what you did wrong. Did you take elevated green into account, did you take roll into account, is a headwind killing the shot's trajectory, are the wind figures a bit out as I've found? Each round you play, you'll smooth off the rough edges. After ten rounds, I had it down to a tee and it's now only about one approach each round where something's amiss. And there's usually a pretty simple explanation as to why.
Enjoy.