I have seen a few odd ball shots that can't be explained normally... but one thing I have wondered... is it possible that somehow a glitch occurs where a shot is treated as an UEL shot rather than an even lies shot... now if a glitch like that occurred in the rendering of the shot, it would explain somethings we see.
another possibility in the outcome of the shot...
what if for some reason one of the wind factors or shot parameters is "negated" meaning for whatever reason the wind under normal shot calculations is a 13 wind but in the math or rendering of the shot it ends up being treated as a -13 wind instead.
-- Now, I have made these type of mistakes myself occasionally while typing a number into a calculator … so I suspect when the game implements some "real world" like play dynamics we occasionally get a WTF shot that mysteriously negates one of the shot parameters... and in doing so, it completely alters the shots expected outcome.
I can't confirm either of these, but both seem far more plausible as possible explanation than "variance" or "user error". I am not denying variance and user error occur but sometimes... I also clearly believe other nuances or glitches could be at play …