I've posted several, extensive observations of my own about the parallax with skewed camera angles, wind pointer and the independent orientation of the mini map.
Briefly, from my observations, the wind vane (pointer) is relative to the camera shot. But the camera shot is not always 'linear'. Sometimes 'strait ahead' may be skewed. See more at the posts links below.
Browse all the postes at THIS thread and see if you agree, if it doesn't work for you then investigate.
Here is a small excerpt of my presumptions:
Note as you change camera angles, e.g. reverse, zoom, player, the wind pointer changes with it. But the map stays the same. So the wind pointer and map don't really 'correspond' all the time when juxtaposed.
If the camera angle is the same angle of the map then they will be congruent, but that is not always the case.
The maps are fixed in their position.
Camera angles, mostly on the approach shots, can be skewed. Sometimes player camera angles on the tee off are a little off center, but not so much.
A good habit is to place your AIM arrow in the middle, line up a 'strait shot' (seen in the top picture above, or the bottom right insert fig. 'C') to see what angle you are facing. At that same time, look at the shot line w/aim on the mini map and compare the angles. THIS IS JUST to figure out your angle.
THEN change your aim to how you want to hit the ball! (thanks, andyson, this is very important to mention)
Placing my aim forward (fig C bottom R) is just to determine the camera angle.