YankeeJim: I seem to recall something about what happens the first time takes a few more matches to happen again. Or it doesn't happen the 2nd and 3rd time like it did for the first-the average drops but not as much. Something like that.
Yep you could be right Jim. When the anti-sandbagging measures were first introduced, all wins against higher tier players (TM and below) had a marked impact on the "average". Players with little skills were getting promoted very quickly (even with a dire win/loss ratio) so WGT pulled back the reins - but to what degree we will never know, and only educated guesses can be made.
So Jims scenario makes sense for normal match play, but challenge results may have a multiplier to accentuate the drop in average.
Believe me - the only way to earn a promotion is by working hard on your game, playing all the courses and learning all the shots. But most importantly, have fun along the way.