The ball will generally go where you have placed the aimer. Mishit severity will be applied to your aim line, not the default line and is based on a few different factors including lie type, depth, spin rate, club precision and where you strike on the meter.
Most players kinda glaze over the fact that all clubs have PRECISION ratings and precision affects ball flight whether it's a mishit or not. In other words, it's very possible with low precision clubs (Starters, Raptures) to ding the meter and still have the ball start off the intended target line. The low precision dictates that the ball will not always go where you aimed it and thus is the result for some of the discrepancies you see in the results.