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Hole in one challenge?

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Fri, Mar 15 2013 11:18 AM (28 replies)
  • MBaggese
    15,368 Posts
    Thu, Feb 7 2013 6:26 PM

    Read about it but can't seem to find it anywhere?

  • alanti
    10,564 Posts
    Thu, Feb 7 2013 7:02 PM

    I was playing Pebble in a CC tourny today, one of the holes you can elect to take the challenge. If you took the challenge a HIO earned 1400cr and had a pittance for within 1 foot and within 5 feet for a wager of 100cr. I landed 3 feet away after declining the wager - pretty poor odds and would have lost on the deal. I am sure it will come up if you play CTTH pn Pebble.

  • MBaggese
    15,368 Posts
    Thu, Feb 7 2013 7:10 PM

    Thanks...not  a big fan of CTTH, but did play one of the Pebble things today, but must have overlooked it or wasn't in the one I played.

     

    No issues...rarely inside 10 feet anyways:)

  • alosso
    21,083 Posts
    Thu, Feb 7 2013 7:18 PM

    It's PB #7, their signature hole, played as the 3rd of the first PB CTTHs.

    One can adjust the wager, 100, 50, 10 cr, but you only get a net win with a HIO.

    Just tried it and had an unusually stuttering meter :(

  • MBaggese
    15,368 Posts
    Thu, Feb 7 2013 7:46 PM

    alosso:
    but you only get a net win with a HIO.

     

    Hmnn...let's see probably 5000 rounds, maybe I have 10-12 holes in one...I might just forgo this challenge..lol!

  • Timbo1984
    818 Posts
    Thu, Feb 7 2013 10:18 PM

    Anyone else find that the ball behaves quite violently after landing on that hole?

    Mine seemed to veer off in strange directions or have massive amounts of backspin even though I applied quite a modest amount.

    Strange.

  • gedi83
    277 Posts
    Fri, Feb 8 2013 9:12 AM

    http://prospect-theory.behaviouralfinance.net/

    Figure 2 (on the right) shows why people would play such a challenge (or lotteries in general) though rationally speaking they shouldn't :)

  • zagraniczniak
    1,984 Posts
    Fri, Feb 8 2013 10:17 AM

    gedi83:

    http://prospect-theory.behaviouralfinance.net/

    Figure 2 (on the right) shows why people would play such a challenge (or lotteries in general) though rationally speaking they shouldn't :)

    I couldn't make heads or tails of that article. So I guess all bets are off.

  • axstrat
    415 Posts
    Fri, Feb 8 2013 12:22 PM

    I found you can turn the HIO challenges off or on via menu/options while in play.  Kinda a suckers bet though if you ask me.

  • gedi83
    277 Posts
    Fri, Feb 8 2013 12:23 PM

    The main point is that people evaluate probabilities of events subjectively (in the brain) in a way that is different from their actual value. In particular, small probabilities (like 1/1000) are massively overweighed, so people make decisions as if they were many times bigger. For this reason, they tend to pay 3$ for a lottery where there is a 1/1000000 chance to win a 1000000$ jackpot even if that's totally irrational (the expected value of such prize is 1$ which is much less than 3$ ticket price). Similarly, many of you folks will probably bet for this hole-in-one thing, massively overestimating the actual probability of making it. Got it? :)

    Btw, IMO this (prospect theory and a few related behavioral economics topics) is one of the most important things every consumer should learn if s/he wants to avoid falling prey to modern marketing tricks. If I had the power, I would push for teaching it in high school... That would save many average Joes lots of money (of course at a cost of corporate profits :))

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