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Figuring Score Average

• coolpar 152 Posts

  Mon, Apr 1 2013 5:28 PM

  Ok, here is the deal. I shoot 2 over on a par 36 and my average goes up by .4. I shoot 6 under on a par 36 and my average drops by only .2. I don't get it. What am I missing?

• Mushy01 2,567 Posts

  Mon, Apr 1 2013 5:43 PM

  same thing as I am, obviously .... just doesn't make any sense since making Legend.

• alosso 21,094 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 12:43 AM

  Get closer to the calculation and you'll see it.

  9 hole results are doubled for the calculation, and your average is 66.36:

  38 => 76, difference to your average = 9.6

  30 => 60, difference = -6.4

  For an approximative result (1), these numbers are divided by the total no. of your Legend rounds which may be almost 300. Take 270 to arrive at the following numbers:

  9.6 / 270 = .036, rounded to .04

  -6.4 / 270 = -.024, rounded to -.02

  Further questions? ;)

   

  (1) Edit: of average movement

• alanti 10,564 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 1:23 AM

  Alosso is spot on, but my advice is don't worry to much about your averages, they will settle down in due course.

• alosso 21,094 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 2:05 AM

  +1 Alan!

  More important than any average are the good rounds. Those who worry about reaching Tour Legend need but 500 rounds forming an average of 60.000 . Outside of that number, scores and average are mainly important  for bragging rights. ;)

  It is also safe to say that said 38 will have no admittance to that party of 500
  - it will become kicked out quite soon when the average has saturated after 500 Legend rounds.

  As a side note, it's the first time for me to estimate the no. of rounds from the results.

• coolpar 152 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 5:24 AM

  Thanks alosso for your clear and concise explanation. Perfectly understandable now. Thanks again for taking the time.

• EasyEdward 13,507 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 7:41 AM

  alosso:

  As a side note, it's the first time for me to estimate the no. of rounds from the results.

   

  Alosso: Now you have the basis for that Excle program I wrote for the Legend in my CC  who wanted to know how many rounds he had played as Legend. 

  With your example above:

  The 9.6 change in average leads to somewhere between 213 and 274 rounds played using conventional rounding

  the 6.4 change leads to somewhere between 256 and 426 rounds played.

  The overlap between those two would indicate that the player had between 256 and 274 rounds played as a Legend.

  Except

  The individual calculations have to be made right before and right after every change and your calculations you based yours on what his average is now and thus the level of precision can be off by a good number of rounds. 

  AND

  The initial average used also has the same conventional rounding applied to it. So for example the 66.36 average is somewhere between 66.3550 and 66.3649 That has to be taken into account first. 

  THUS

  The simple range calculations become a larger and more complex as the numerator and the denominator are both subject to conventional rounding.

  PS - I was spot on with the number I came up with (407 rounds played) for the Legend I wrote the program for. When he counted rounds from that point he scored a 31 for my preicted round 499 nd his average moved 0.01. his 30 on round 500 dropped his average 0.05 

   

• alosso 21,094 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 9:43 AM

  I thought of you when I wrote that line.

  While I hope never to try a precise calculation, it struck me how easily I would find an approximate no. from two samples. It may vary by about 20 scores, between 255 and 275, but the possible variation of the average itself seems to modify this only by one stroke.

  With a few samples more, five or max. 10, of average, score, resulting average, it should be possible to come to a possible variation only a few scores.

  It's certainly easier to note the ranked rounds in the stats when becoming a Legend :)

• PI61 1,657 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 10:03 AM

  It was stated that only "good rounds" are counted toward your average.  How are "good rounds" or "bad rounds" determined?

• alosso 21,094 Posts

  Tue, Apr 2 2013 10:37 AM

  They all count as long the average is not saturated.

  In my terms, good rounds stay in the calculation for a long time, preferably till the end.

  In the example above, for Tour Legend, 500 rounds must be available forming an average of 60. Thus, any 30/60 or better is a good round per se, but also 31/62 and probably 63 are in the mix. 

  I have no example, but I'd guess that 33/66 and higher are well "out" - bad rounds, unless you are a natural talent playing 27s amass.

  It's easier to follow in lower tiers. As a Tour Master, becoming Legend with 61, half of my 64s were good, half were bad. 

  As a Master, 2 out of 10 65s were good for the necessary 63.

  As a Tour Pro, one of many 70s did count to the 67 average.

  In any case, those 37/38 which do happen on a bad day are meaningless. Post them or not, it's just the same. No need to quit "to protect the average".