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Why is my take on averages wrong?

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Wed, Aug 13 2014 4:12 AM (4 replies)
  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Tue, Aug 12 2014 1:15 PM

    From Apexpc  Notice that those minimal number of ranked rounds are also the number of best rounds used to compute your average in that particular tier. So if you are Tour Master for example, your average is computed with your best 50 ranked round (that's why you need at least 50 rounds to move up)

    I'm using this as my starting point as it makes sense to me.

    The general consensus is that saturation point for Legend-TL is 500 rounds.  In my 500 legend rounds most of my net scores will be between 58-68, though there will be some above this and a couple below.

    It seems to me that if after my 500th ranked round my average, irrespective of what it is, should then drop every time I score under net 68 (probably 70 or more at first) as that score will replace my highest.  My doubt about this arises mainly as I've often seen people say that to drop your average you need to score below it, and that seems more likely.

    Also as a legend I can't remember my ave going down, (I also can't remember how long that's been so wouldn't swear about the earliest times but certainly in recent months) so prior to saturation where were the 500 scores coming from that only allowed it to drop? (TM rounds? I know, the average is reset so I suppose not).

    If I was right it would be easier than what seems generally anticipated to drop average at legend after saturation, I strongly suspect I'm wrong. 

    I know I'll be there soon, and I'm not looking forward to being grouped with the real Legends, just wondering really.

     

  • alosso
    21,092 Posts
    Tue, Aug 12 2014 3:02 PM

    DodgyPutter:

    It seems to me that if after my 500th ranked round my average, irrespective of what it is, should then drop every time I score under net 68 (probably 70 or more at first) as that score will replace my highest.  My doubt about this arises mainly as I've often seen people say that to drop your average you need to score below it, and that seems more likely.

    Different action on a pre-saturation average and after.

    Below 500 rounds counting, it is a linear average, behaving like we all know it. For this it's true, it will only drop when a lower than average score is added.

    In the first lines you speak about a "saturated" average, and this is non-linear because a value is replaced. This kind of average may drop - as a sign of crossing the line - even when the new score is higher.

    Simple example: Take scores of 10, 20, 30 ... 90. Nine scores forming an average of 50. Linear, it's obvious that scores below 50 will pull it down, scores above will raise it.

    Saturated, a new - lower - score may replace an old - higher - one. Thus, a 60 will replace the 90 and cause a drop. And, since the difference of 60 - 90 is involved, the drop will be significant. These two signs are well visible in Legend averages.

    DodgyPutter:

    Also as a legend I can't remember my ave going down, (I also can't remember how long that's been so wouldn't swear about the earliest times but certainly in recent months) so prior to saturation where were the 500 scores coming from that only allowed it to drop? (TM rounds? I know, the average is reset so I suppose not).

    Correct. These 500 have been played as a Legend, starting as a new Legend, not used to the new situation => higher scores. A reasonable difference may be 65 - 80 when saturation starts.

    Yes, it is that easy then.

  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Wed, Aug 13 2014 12:48 AM

    Thanks alosso.

    I didn't note how many rounds I had played when my tier rose to legend but I'm now pretty sure I became saturated (always a danger in Scotland) a few weeks ago.

    So for these (daft enough to be) looking forward to making TL reaching saturation with an average around 61 should mean they make it fairly soon after. 

  • alosso
    21,092 Posts
    Wed, Aug 13 2014 1:50 AM

    DodgyPutter:
    So for these (daft enough to be) looking forward to making TL reaching saturation with an average around 61 should mean they make it fairly soon after. 
    Take care - it will need some time. With a 61 average, there are 500 shots too many in the mix, and you have to take them out. As a wild guess, this might need 200 games...

  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Wed, Aug 13 2014 4:12 AM

    alosso:
    With a 61 average, there are 500 shots too many in the mix, and you have to take them out. As a wild guess, this might need 200 games...

    Fair enough I maybe underplayed how much longer it may take, and it will depend on what sort of player you are. Specifically if you kept these 36/72+ plus scores when first a legend.  

    Surely a legend that's managed to be 61 ave before saturation is capable of scoring 30/60 fairly often, so losing 2.5 a round from their 50 highest scores may be a little conservative.  As a wild guess I'd go 75 rounds (6.66 a time) which may sound like it'd be the devil to achieve as an average throughout but 32's would do early and 30's would put something in the bank. 

    Of course it depends on many things, where/ in what conditions you play these rounds and the range of your banked scores primarily.  I think there is usually a weekly or monthly 9 hole tournament with virtually no wind and I reckon playing that constantly would make it fairly quick.

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