PaulTon:
KronosKeylock: take off 1 per 6 for declination
That little gem explains your average.
Here is a quote from over 2 years ago :-
Just taking the elevation distance from where you are to the hole is not enough, you need to know where that elevation occurs. CCC #4 is a perfect example. An approach of 195 yards, or so, would normally use a 5 iron (R11-195 yds) but that will only carry about 185 and there's no room for it to roll because the elevation (trap) is in the way and you fall short.
Picture the arc of the shot in your mind and then determine how the elevation interrupts it.