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Uneven Lies Ryder Cup @ Chambers Bay: Sep2015: Qualification Thread

• Corwyn 2,410 Posts

  Thu, May 28 2015 8:05 PM

  UEL Ryder Cup @ Chambers Bay :: Team Standings:  after week 21 tourney

  see second post page 1 above for explanation of how these spreadsheets work

  Below are updated sheets for each Team's qualification status following wk21 results at Royal St. George's in the UEL Spring 2015 Tour.

  Please note: I have included estimated credits in the Tour Spreadsheet for wk21, even though the tourney is not yet closed out officially.

  Please check that everything is correct: I'm fairly sure I captured every player that declared an interest in qualification (via earlier posts here, or in the Spring Tour thread, or via PMs to myself) but please make sure.

  Also, the spreadsheet is misbehaving at times -- I suspect it's so slow that it doesn't fully update every cell calculation while I have it open, and that can lead to certain data not being included when it sorts standings -- so please check that your own results look right. This google doc spreadsheet is truly tortuously slow to run: any techies who could give me some tips please do! I'm using Chrome on a Mac running OS X 10.6.8)

  Click on links to go straight to respective spreadsheets (Team USA  | Team ROW), or right-click images below to open in new tab, and zoom in to see full size ....

  Team USA: qualification standings after wk21 tourney

  

  Team ROW: qualification standings after wk21 tourney

  

  These results take us through 11 weeks of the 12 week Spring UEL Tour... Remember, the best 9 results are relevant to determining the majority of team places.

  For Team USA, Ben (bhoese) still has the TL USA credit earner lead, but still could theoretically be caught by a win from one of several challengers: Ross, Dave, and Shankette. In L tier, despite missing last week, akash1592 now cannot be caught for the automatic leading Legend credit winner spot on Team USA.

  In the the next category, the 4 next highest credits finishers in the standings are currently mmyers0, GolferDadRB, DaveDwingdale and Shankette. KyRock75 is close behind, and could still qualify via that route. Right now he's in the list via the last spot in the relative to par standings, and has a healthy 4 shot lead over fredsf. ColumbusStorm, frenchconnect and Wesdogg75 make up the other automatic qualifying spots. BigKnight now seems too far behind, so the remaining drama is between Rock and Fred for that last spot, or whether a great result will propel any one of many outsiders into a credits position. 

  For Team ROW, fmagnets and Corwyn are guaranteed winners of their respective tier's credit standings, and those first automatic qualifying spots.

  Amongst the 4 next highest credits earners in the Tour, the biggest gain was made by johehejo but for a while it looked as if both Dazza and then Joe would book their spot with a win this week. It was Jorg that got the win, but even then he still needs another high finish this week to overtake FluffyGreens for the 4th spot here... And it can be snatched by Joe, Dazza, duffputt, or even FairwayRuepel68. This will be extremely close!

  For now FairwayRuepel, Joe, and Legaci are holding the next 3 spots through the best9 Relative to Par standings, with Daskino and Johehejo tied for the last spot... but this is all affected by whichever happen to be the best 9 scores. And it will all be affected by whether FluffyGreens holds on to her best9 Credits 4th spot or if it goes to one of the other challengers!

  More to follow as the pundits try and figure this all out... and examine the current leaderboard for this week's St. Andrews tourney. This could easily come down to 1 putt here or there!

  Good luck to everyone battling for places on the Ryder Cup teams!

• Corwyn 2,410 Posts

  Thu, May 28 2015 8:38 PM

  Corwyn:

  More to follow as the pundits try and figure this all out...

  This is what I think the current state of play is... based, of course, on the scores showing in the St Andrews leaderboard as of 8pm tonight:

  FairwayRuepel68: -8 drops, still to play StA > currently -102    [3 lowest: -18]

  JoeMaverick: -5 drops, still to play StA > currently -102    [3 lowest: -18]

  Legaci: -4 drops, -10 replaces > improves 6 > -102     [3 lowest: -4]

  Daskino: -7 drops, still to play StA > currently -94   [3 lowest: -19]

  johehejo: -8 drops, -10 replaces > improves 2 > -96   [3 lowest: -13]

  duffputt: -8 drops, -11 replaces, improves 3 > -95   [3 lowest: -21]

  matildalgaly:  -7 drops, still to play StA > currently -89   [3 lowest: -16]

   

  There may be only 4 of these players that can make an automatic qualifying spot, but if Marc, Joe, or even Lou (with a win), or Jorg or duffputt if they get enough points from the score they've already posted, can overtake FluffyGreens in the Best9 credits standings (and Sara is already in the clubhouse with a 68 which will likely gain her no extra points), then 5 of the players in the list above will qualify. [Unless it's Dazza that overhauls Sara!]

  Right now:

  Mati would have to shoot -15 or better and hope Lou does no better than -9.

  duffputt has to rely on others, hoping Lou does no better than -7, and that Sara is displaced (and that Mati doesn't shoot -15)

  Jorg currently has the 4th spot, but has to hope Lou does no better than -8, or that an extra spot becomes available (which he himself might take if he can attain 40cr for the week to catch Sara, and if no-one else leapfrogs him: currently he's tied 13th so that's going to be close!)

  Lou is in charge of his own destiny (oh, I love that phrase when they use it in the FedEx Cup, lol!). He needs to shoot -10 to stay ahead of Jorg, and hope Mati doesn't shoot something incredible. If Sara is ousted in the best9 credits spot, Lou will need one stroke less, -9 (all other things being equal!). How are you at handling the pressure, Lou?

  Legaci, Joe and Marc should all be safe, unless Lou goes real low and threatens their positions. But even a -15 from Lou for instance would only force Legaci to shoot -5, Joe to shoot -6 and Marc -9.

  Anyone else want to do their best Johnny Miller impression... ?

  Please have at it... !!!

• JoeMaverick 843 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 1:49 AM

  Currently FairwayRuepel68, Legaci and me are tie if we don't improve our score, and only Daskino and matildagaly can catch us... but mati needs to score -20 (need to improve his best9 by 13 so -20 to replace -7)! It's impossible so I think we can say that FairwayRuepel68, Legaci and me are safe for sure.

  It's also over for duffputt (so constant but not enough great scores) and jorge can't be qualified through best9 credits. FluffyGreens needs to wait for the score of Dazza, Fairway and myself. Jorge needs to wait for the scores of Daskino and Mati, but also the scores of Fairway and myself because we can give one more spot through best9 relative2par.

  I like the current situation but some other much less I suppose :D

• MatildaIgaly 1,822 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 4:38 AM

  Corwyn:

  Mati would have to shoot -15 or better and hope Lou does no better than -9.

  If my putter is in the bag and not as of lately, on a drunk vacation that is doable!

  Serious though, I lost my chances early  when i changed my putting and it still gives me an headache.

  And Lou will deffo shoot better than -9.

   

• BigKnight 2,777 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 5:34 AM

  Corwyn:

   BigKnight now seems too far behind, so the remaining drama is between Rock and Fred for that last spot, or whether a great result will propel any one of many outsiders into a credits position. 

   

  Sad but true Corwyn..some stiff competition which is great to see! Congrats to the automatic qualifiers..i'll have to hope to be one of CS's Captains picks. Perhaps my 2-1-0 record last time (at Olympic) and scoring the winning point at Pinehurst will help my cause ;)

  =bk=

• ColumbusStorm 3,417 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 7:14 AM

  BigKnight:

  i'll have to hope to be one of CS's Captains picks.

  If I qualify I'm willing to be captain again, but would also let some else take the responsibility if they want it.

  I've been looking at the qualifying scores and captains picks will definitely be some very hard decisions.

  Being on the team in past is definitely worth some points. Knowing someone's dependability and experience at playing well with the RC team pressure is worth a lot.

  Post good scores in the final qualifier. Make it hard for the 2 captains...lol

• JoeMaverick 843 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 11:05 AM

  It's good for joerg! So now there's only one spot free in team ROW and it will be for FluffyGreens, Dazza or Daskino. Currently Joerg has enough credits to give the spot to Daskino, but he needs to remain in the top 19. I don't think that will stand. Fairway or me can still give the qualification to Daskino but we need resp. 150cr (top 2) and 99 cr (top 3). Dazza needs 176 cr. (top 2). Fluffy is still alive!

• Corwyn 2,410 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 11:36 AM

  Corwyn:

  Lou is in charge of his own destiny (oh, I love that phrase when they use it in the FedEx Cup, lol!). He needs to shoot -10 to stay ahead of Jorg, and hope Mati doesn't shoot something incredible. If Sara is ousted in the best9 credits spot, Lou will need one stroke less, -9 (all other things being equal!). How are you at handling the pressure, Lou?

  At first I couldn't figure out what the news was that prompted Joe's post, but I looked at the leaderboard, and Lou (Daskino) played his round today and shot 64 (-8), 1-2 shots short of what was needed for him. His final Best9 Relative to Par number will be -95. Bad luck! Did you know the target, Lou?

  Mati (Matildalgaly) has also played today, and she scored a 62 (-10). Her final Best9 Relative to Par number will be -92, just a few shots short for her... :(

  ---------------------------

  However, Joe, if you, Marc (FairwayRuepel68), or Dazza are able to overtake Sara (FluffyGreens), the extra place that will create in the best9 Relative to Par would, I think (!) now go to duffputt rather than Daskino.

  If my calculations are right, Daskino will finish with -95, which is also the number duffputt will reach. And then, if needed, there will be a tiebreak, as I posted yesterday:

  Corwyn:

  OK: here is the decision on what will happen in the event of a tie for a RyderCup automatic qualifying place should players end up with the same score in the Best9 Relative to Par category.

  The tiebreak criteria will next go to said players' overall Relative to Par score (taking into account all tourneys they competed in). [In theory this better rewards a player who has both participated in more events, and been more consistent].

  If that still fails to resolve the tie, then it will go to Best9 credits: whichever of those players has the most credits in the Best9 table will take the last automatic qualifying spot.

  And if by some miracle that still fails to resolve the tie, it will go to overall Credits standing (not just best9).

  Hope that makes sense (and seems logical and fair to all)!

  Corwyn

  By those tiebreak rules, duffputt is 2 strokes better off than Daskino in the overall Relative to Par standings across all 12 events (not just Best9).

• Corwyn 2,410 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 12:11 PM

  JoeMaverick:

  Currently Joerg has enough credits to give the spot to Daskino, but he needs to remain in the top 19. I don't think that will stand. Fairway or me can still give the qualification to Daskino but we need resp. 150cr (top 2) and 99 cr (top 3). Dazza needs 176 cr. (top 2). Fluffy is still alive!

  As the leaderboard looks right now, Jorg is tied 13th (with 6 others)... so 13th-19th place gets each player 1.7% of the prize pool = 34cr. That's enough to put Jorg 6cr clear of Fluffy...

  ... but, as you say, his 62 score won't hold in 13th place through the next 60 hours. The question is, how many other players will shoot lower than 62?

  Jorg can afford for his share of the pot to drop to 29cr and still overtake Fluffy. 29cr is 1.45% of the prize pool: 7 players tied in 16th place gives each 1.402%, which is only 28cr (which would mean a tiebreak situation in credits won, which would also go to overall credits won, not just Best9, favoring Jorg). But if an 8th player joins them on 62, then that wouldn't be enough for Jorg: he'd drop to 27cr.

  I think Jorg can only afford 3 more players to shoot lower than 62 if he's to claim that last Credits spot, and also have no one else match 62 (unless fewer than 3 better it).

  This is worse than election night, lol!

• Corwyn 2,410 Posts

  Fri, May 29 2015 12:17 PM

  Oh, I see that wk21 @ Kiawah has just paid out (into individual accounts). Obviously, the spreadsheets are all using provisional numbers for that week currently, so it's possible that I was wrong with those calculations.

  Hopefully the WGT servers will synch soon and we'll see the allocated credits show up in that leaderboard, so I can update the Standings with confirmed numbers. The leaderboard doesn't show credits (for me) as of now.