fmagnets:
Noteworthy dedication to detail, very impressive. Looks like I will have to go into EVEN more detail!! I think you were over-hitting your 3wd by 5yds for the raw yardage/wind/elevation combination. Usually that pin plays 5ish yds long though, so you would be spot on on average. This is an unusual feature in WGT that often occurs when you have higher ground before an upsloping landing area (think no. 14 at Pinehurst for example). No idea why it happens.
There seems to be a trigger point with these types of shots where, if you go past a certain yardage, the playing long by 3-5yds goes out of the window and suddenly the shot goes it's full yardage. The very flat trajectory and reduced spin of a knock down 3wd means once it clears the back of the green it doesn't need many extra yards to clear the longest bit of rough which is 4ft lower than the hole. So, overhitting by 5yds, 9 yards of extra deviated yardage, 2yds for the elevation drop - this could carry into the water without the need to attribute bugs to the shot. Icon also says that full bs and reduced power leads to even more deviation, but I have nothing on this.
Or just hit the 3i which is more precise despite what the dots say!!
I understand perfectly what are you are saying, but, allow me to go in detail for one last time. I won't repeat that i have played the shot many times in the past, hope someone reding my posts. Let's go to the hole...
First of all, the whole concept of this hole is wrong. If iam not wrong, the hole is down like 30fts or something. I remember the first time had to do the approach there picked up a lighter club and gave the usual 10-15 yds less. Instead the ball came up way short. So, after a bit of practice, used to play that hole more or less at the indicating yardage setting up accordingly my stroke. A 9.30 wind would carry my ball a bit further but since don't like to play without spin, my 220 Nike certainly could not make it for 228 distance. Almost certainly i 'd came up short...that's why i used a 3WD contained shot at 220. Perhaps it was a wrong choice, perhaps i should have used the 3i...in any case though, the ball can't go in the water under these conditions for any probable or improbable reason...and for that, iam certain.
As for BB 3WD, why a similar thing never happened on the 3d hole of BB, for instance? How come there every shot is perfect or near perfect? (also this hole is 10 down if i remeber correctly). If i play this stroke 1 million times in Bethpage with a wind at 9.30, full bs at 220, 1 million and 1 times won't reach the hole at 240.
Forgot:
9th on BB. Dots still, putt from 20 fts. Memory serves me well and i remembered there was a break left to right. Aimed half grid to the left and the ball finished just right the hole.