I understand what you're saying, but its all about perception and ways of thinking.
My way of thinking....
Ok so say 50% of the people buy from WGT, and WGT end up $900 better off (you're assuming of course that all 100% of player B will buy the balls, whereas in my case above, I would have sold my driver and bought the irons, but wouldn't have bought the irons if I didn't sell my driver for about the same price
Also, the assumption is there that all players who have used clubs to sell, will be selling for half of their original value (tbh, I'd buy used clubs for 1000 CR over new for 1200 - as on WGT it makes no difference - so theres also more there in terms of variations of the model)
Lets go back to your scenario 1 vs scenario 3
50 people buy their 1200 CR for new clubs from WGT ($600)
75 people buy their Callaway balls from WGT ($225)
Total $875
100 people buy 1200 CR clubs from another player at varying prices from 600 - 1000 CR (est total, $800)
That's $75 difference...now for the interesting part
WGT listens to player A's request to make clubs transferrable
Player A buys new driver A for pro advancement, new driver B for master advancement, new 3 wood, new irons, wedges, putter (from other players) total est revenue $20 (plus that for new balls too)
WGT ignores player A's request: player A decides never to spend on the game Revenue $0
Now for the second interesting part:
- Customer satisfaction drops further
- 10% of previously paying customers decide never to spend again
- 20% of previously paying customers decide to pay only if they need a new driver
- 20% decide to buy clubs as and when, but never to buy balls (WGTs "regular" revenue)
- 50% of non-paying customers drop out of the game completely.
- Their investors see the numbers going down, investigate into why. Investment stops
- New investment opportunities drop
I like your way of thinking Andy, as its how my mind used to work. However, your model was looking at the short term (immediate sales) rather than the long term (potential sales).
I'm not saying WGT will make more money within one month if they incorporate this, but I am saying that WGT will have happier customers, not a hugely reduced income, and a huge amount of potential income
Rob