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Skills Challenge: A statistical breakdown and explanation.

• tibbets 1,043 Posts

  Sun, Nov 30 2008 9:28 AM

   We have all experienced the wide variety of results in the Skills Challenge.  I embarked on a little analysis of the game, and believe I have come up with a rough explanation.

  In Stroke Play, we also see a variety of results based on a perfect hit.  We have all seen the left/right movement of the ball on perfect hits.  What is not often discussed is the varying degree of length.  A so-called randomizer adjusts the trajectory, angle, and length of each hole.  Within this randomizer is a percentage-based formula which regulates the distances of each club appropriately based on the percentage +/- of the formula.  As seen by the results of the top tiered players, we have learned how to live with this variance, and have figured out ways to adjust our shots per hole to account for the variance.

  In the Skills Challenge, the randomizer also affects trajectory and angle similar to the Stroke Play version.  What changes, however, is the way the distance is affected.  Rather than regulate each club based on a percentage +/-, each Full shot in the Skills Challenge has a variance of approximately  +/-13 yards.

  What does this mean, and why is it important?

   Well, each hole has a different length. Sometimes we are using an AW, other times a 3 wood.  regardless of club chosen, every Full shot taken has a +/- variance of 13 yards.  Now, for a 3 wood that represents about 12% of total possible yardage, but for an AW, a 13 yard +/- variance represents a whopping 40% difference in possible yardage traveled!

  Here is a hole-by-hole(Kiawah) breakdown of what this means.  Note that each percentage listed is based on the yardage of the hole, not of the club chosen, and only represents the percentage long or short, not total percentage variance.  For example, on hole#1 the ball can travel 9% farther than reported distance, so total variance for hole #1 would be 18%.

  Hole#1: 140 yds--9%

  Hole#2: 108yds--12%

  Hole#3:  165yds--8%

  Hole#4: 201yds--6.5%

  Hole#5:  66yds--20%

  Hole#6: 129yds--10%

  Hole#7:  N/A(We hit a pitch shot here, not a Full shot)

  Hole#8: 156yds--8%

  Hole#9: 172yds--7.5%

  As you can see, there is a wide range of results possible for the distance traveled of each shot in the Skills Challenge.  Until this variance of distance is addressed, I will continue my assertion that this part of the game is not worthy of the name 'Skills Challenge'.  Fortunately most of the tournament competitions are sweepstakes-based(meaning it doesn't matter if you finish first or last, its a random drawing).  Even so, it would even be more skillful if the distance variances would be the same as Stroke Play is currently.

  Any chance of this happening soon WGT? 

  P.S.  Please note that this is not a criticism, rather a critique.  Hopefully this analysis can help newer players not feel quite as frustrated by the erratic variety of results.

• Sandhill 3 Posts

  Sun, Nov 30 2008 9:47 AM

  Folks, this is exactly why WGT is referred to as the first opiate for the internet.   I would consider leaving your full time employment positions and devoting 40 hours per week to WGT if you hope to become as fanatically granular as our beloved Mssr. Tibbets.

  Stanford dorms were pulling all nighters on the game this Holiday weekend and look forward to being able to challenge their Facebook friends and rival schools, once the APIs to the social networks are completed.  We should ask WGT for free credits if we sign-up x amount of friends or coworkers.

• tibbets 1,043 Posts

  Sun, Nov 30 2008 9:56 AM

   Ha!  Yes indeed, certainly one of the many opiates of the internet. 

  In response to the cleverly-ambiguous 'fanatically granular' comment:  To quote Whitman, "..I am large, I contain multitudes."

  Now, go get your daily fix.

• iconian 599 Posts

  Sun, Nov 30 2008 10:11 AM

   my lowest score on those is i think 71ft and u are right. i only go low if i get good distance on #3 (monthly one).

  when i hit my 71, my $3 was like 20-22 ft and most others inside 8ft...

  hehe i dont take variance into play on skill challenge. i often settle for the middle heh

• nivlac 2,188 Posts

  Sun, Nov 30 2008 8:04 PM

  Fascinating find.  I now understand why #5 on Bali Hai (the 74yd shot) gives me such wildly inconsistent results.  I figured there was a percentage variance between clubs, but I never would've guessed a constant 13 yards for every club though.  Good work as always.

  At least, as you mentioned, most skill challenges are sweepstakes based.  Unfortunate though that there is a paid-entry skill challenge considering the sheer amount of luck involved.

• WGTalex 2,087 Posts

  Mon, Dec 1 2008 3:59 PM

  Hi Tibbets, just wanted to respond to a couple of your points:

  Currently, the clubs in the closest-to-the-pin challenge and stroke play are the same, so there shouldn't be a variance of 13 feet. Feel free to send us your data if you'd like us to take a look.

  The game does not have a randomizer. The beginners clubs were designed to be forgiving (large, easier to hit sweet spot), but precision is compromised. This may help to explain the inaccuracies you are experiencing. Clubs will be more or less precise depending on their individual characteristics, as you will see when we release more of them. You may recall that in the Charity Challenge, it was harder to hit a perfect swing with the pro clubs, but they were more accurate.

• tibbets 1,043 Posts

  Mon, Dec 1 2008 4:38 PM

   Will gladly send data in an email and highlight my points.  Thanks for the reply.

   

  Oh, and the variance is 13 yards, not feet ;)

• Fakaro 7 Posts

  Mon, Dec 8 2008 11:15 AM

  FWIW.. when you make a perfect swing and the shot is errant by several yards, it adds a great deal to the frustration level.. I understand the intent, but I think it detracts from the gameplay enough to cause people to leave.

  Regardless of club type, it seems to me the 'perfect' swing should have a much smaller margin of error in shot direction.. there's nothing worse for me in this game right now than to setup a shot perfectly, execute that shot perfectly, and have the ball wind up 15 yards offline.

   

• iconian 599 Posts

  Thu, Dec 11 2008 11:33 PM

   its an interesting saying and i know how u feel

   

  give u a perfect example. this happens to me often on #3. u have a noprmal 200 yard carry and 30-35 yard run and left with say 76 yards.

  wind goes sideways or little tup. so u thinking 76 to the hole. since t had a normal carry 76 it is. u put no spin.... hit it and about 6 yards short. i can't explain it but it happens 80% of the time.

  thats why, 95% of my shots on #3 always + yards and allways max backspin.

   

  only time its not maxed when its 70-73

• Dragoon 18 Posts

  Fri, Jan 23 2009 12:30 PM

  What ever came of this?  Were these percentages proven to be correct?  Is there truely this much variance?