Interesting technical analysis (Bilko), yes, but not necessarily correct.
To simplify, there are 4 main factors in your shot:
- Your math is correct (ie distance), including wind, and your aiming point is also correct:
-If you ding, precision means your shot should end up with a makeable birdie putt, or even a tap in, the more precision, the more likely (these) will occur. This assumes an approach to green in "regulation".
-If you miss the ding, all other things being equal, higher forgiveness clubs will have more tendency to forgive your missing the ding, ie less movement left or right, less loss of distance. If you intentionally "off ding" a shot, forgiveness becomes even more important, and your calculations need to be adjusted re: aim/distance.
-Then there is VEM, which randomly as well as according to WGT's algorithms, will affect shots creating the Whiskey Tango Foxtrot effect (also known as WTF?).