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Way Too Early 2019 Open Cut Predictions

• TopShelf2010 10,929 Posts

  Sun, Jul 1 2018 3:40 PM

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• derekortt 669 Posts

  Sun, Jul 1 2018 10:19 PM

  let's hope that WGT at least has the sense to reshoot 14 and 17 to include the new greens, and have #2 play as the par 4 that it is in reality from the US Open tees

• el3n1 4,502 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 11:20 AM

  It is an interesting idea... here is another...

  If lower tier players can shoot the score necessary to qualify...which appears to be champion level quality play... WGT should immediately consider them eligible for promotion to the next tier at the minimum if not straight to the champion tier!  

  While a few "amatuers" qualify for the actual US Open, they obviously have to be able to play an extremely high level of golf.  They are not professionals because they choose other career paths.  The only thing that separates them from the pros is they do not accept prize money.  Every player on WGT wins prizes 2000 credits just for qualifying because it is deemed such an accomplishment!

  It is not like a lot of players are capable of going that low but you are talking about what the top 20% of the top 1% of the top WGT players or somewhere in the  .002 range and that may be high depending on the actual numbers of players attempting to qualify and those who actually did qualify.  If we track down the numbers it would be easy enough to find out and show just how difficult it is to qualify!  

   

  They are all top level high quality players, yet they are not all champions!  Interesting isn't it.

   

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 11:35 AM

  TopShelf2010:

  Will we finally see a sub 50 score posted?

  Will the cut line drop yet again next year to 54? Or maybe 53?

  If WGT has any brains they'll do what they did when Oakmont came out. 13 greens were introduced for the qualifying there and nobody had any experience on them. The 2nd hole was a riot--3 foot putts above the hole turned into pitches from the fringe below. LOL The cut line was 62 IIRC (61?) and that's what those green speeds did.

  IMO, minimum green speed for the qualifying should be 14.5 or higher. That 14.5 is the speed in the current WGT weekly single play and it really changes things. Speed up the greens, I say.  :-)

• TopShelf2010 10,929 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 11:43 AM

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• TopShelf2010 10,929 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 11:45 AM

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• birchi 1,492 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 11:47 AM

  YankeeJim:

  Speed up the greens, I say. 

  Sounds like a good idea, 14.5 greens at Pebble Beach and high wind are a real challenge, even for the best players. If it's the normal 13 green speed + moderate winds I expect the cut to be at 54, because every player with some skill will play until he or she has a 25 on the front nine. 

• DAZZA501 5,972 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 12:38 PM

  TopShelf2010:

  What gets me agitated, is when I see a player (not you in anyway shape or form) but when I see a Champion qualify with a 54 or 55. Then in the opening round chunk up a 62 or 63. Or better yet, from a post I replied to earlier, this Champion shoots a 55 to qualify, then in their Score History, the remaining qualifier attempts ( with the exception of a 58 and 59 ) there are nothing but mid 60's scores and even one 70.

  How can there be such a drastic change in scoring?

  Another example is from last month's Pinehurst Challenge. A player I came across shoots a 55 in the Unlimited opening round. Then shoots back to back 63's in rounds 2 and 3.

  Again, why is there such a dramatic change in scoring?

  Simply because the unlimited round is unlimited. Start as many times as they like until they birdie or eagle the 1st few holes and then hope to carry it on. Get a bad wind set in a single play round and birdies are hard to come by. Fair play for them to post a score instead of WD'ing.

   

• el3n1 4,502 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 12:55 PM

  TopShelf2010:

  How can there be such a drastic change in scoring?

  It has been awhile since I wrote the post, and I am not sure where it is now (found it linked below)...  I have tried to be a good student of the game and learn as much as I can.  I owe a lot to all of the players that came before me and also posted tips and tutorials for us newer players to try and use.  But, I speculated on this type of topic in another thread.  I believe you saw some of my posts in that thread Don, but you may not have since the final 1 or 2 posts prior to the thread dying out.  

  Recap.  Over time the champion tier has, just like the Legend tier become saturated and eventually even very good players who may consistently shoot scores in the 58 - 63 range but clearly also have the potential to go low when WGT works in their favor and they throw a bunch a shots close, their putts fall and may even have a hole out or two...  Eventually they card enough rounds in the 20's and 50's to get promoted, or they do so playing easy tee's or focus only on certain rounds that play easier than others.  

  With unlimited attempts in the first round they just grind away until they get there.  Then you typically see what is closer to their normal scores in the follow up round.  

  I mean no disrespect to any champion player, but I suggested there are probably 5 different categories of players in the Champion tier.  What makes this thread hard to find is it was in the "release notes thread on 4/26/28" page 15.  

  The variation in the types of champion players can account somewhat for the fluctuating scores.  Even elite players can get hit with an off round, so it is no surprise the rest of us do as well.  

  I guess I am less critical of champion tier players because regardless of their score they are competing against their peers whereas lower tier players that are essentially shooting qualifying scores in the top fraction of 1% of all the players on WGT seem to be in a tier lower than their playing potential/average.  They clearly deserve to be promoted.  

  I am confident I will get there as well, saturation will also clearly help!  

  TopShelf2010:

  why is there such a dramatic change in scoring?

  Unlimited play in first round, single play in follow up rounds along with a few of the factors I mentioned above.  

  I am not trying to speak in definitive terms, these are my musings, my observations, if they help great... if I have missed something please tell... : )

   

   

   

• alanti 10,564 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 2:11 PM

  TopShelf2010:

  YankeeJim:

  Speed up the greens, I say.  :-)

  I'm on board.

  Great idea my friend.

   

  Don

  TBH, the green speed should be a no-brainer.

  My preference would include the faster green speeds, but also a curve ball thrown in. 

  When the courses are put together, add at least one, preferably more alternative pin locations......and roll those out for the VUSO sight unseen (this would however require a better QA process). 

  As for scoring 55, a good player, with a ton of restarts could carve out the one great round. This is why the qualifier is unlimited.....personally, I am an average player and once in a blue moon will I play any unlimited tournament more than once.....this year I did not play the qualifier at all as the course has no relevance IMO....but a player can score low given the right winds and by hitting a groove....then business as usual in the single play rounds.