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Way Too Early 2019 Open Cut Predictions

• el3n1 4,502 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 3:09 PM

  alanti:

  As for scoring 55, a good player, with a ton of restarts could carve out the one great round.

  I understand the rationale and in principle I feel that is generally correct, but you are talking about posting the best of the best scores for everyone that attempts the qualifier.  

  This amounts to less than 20% of the TOP 1% of players that attempted to Qualify.  I think that makes those odds nearly more difficult than the random hole in one!  Meaning more people will randomly get a HIO than those that will potentially qualify after attempting to do so against the best players on WGT.   

  Yes, many will get a hole in one over time, some more than others, but you are still talking about posting scores in the realm of the best scores shot by the best players that play this game!  

  That isn't particularly easy to do.  

• TopShelf2010 10,929 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 3:10 PM

  .

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 4:28 PM

  That's some out of the box thinking there,Don. Problem is, it fails the realism test. You ain't seeing that on the pro tour anytime soon. LOL

   

• el3n1 4,502 Posts

  Mon, Jul 2 2018 4:35 PM

  el3n1:

  This amounts to less than 20% of the TOP 1% of players that attempted to Qualify. 

  In case it is brought up I want to point out that I estimated these numbers from what I had read in a couple other threads.

  I believe around 170 people made the cut. 156 plus another 14 that reportedly did not receive the 2000 credit prize but it was stated that those over 156 had to be done manually by WGT.

  Another thread mentioned previously over 100,000 entries or attempts were made to qualify in the previous year  and this year there were over 90,000 entries.  I don't recall the exact number so I rounded down.

  So, of the 170 that qualified out of 90,000 that meant only .001889 or .19 of 1%

  That is a very select group of players!  And not just anyone can go out and post a 55.  

  I would wager there are good champion players that failed to qualify even after repeated attempts!  It truly shows how good those are that did qualify!  

   

• ships0 186 Posts

  Wed, Jul 4 2018 12:29 AM

  I posted 56 in my one and only attempt very early on when the qualifying opened. Gutted to have not got through as I tend to do better in single play events. Personally the so of the scores being posted in the US Open are shocking. I know its tougher but guy's shooting 55 then going mid 60s around one of the easiest courses on here is pretty laughable. I'm guessing these are the players that have 30/40 attempts in the qualifying then blow up when it comes to the crunch. 

• derekortt 669 Posts

  Sat, Jul 7 2018 10:55 AM

  YankeeJim:

   

  If WGT has any brains they'll do what they did when Oakmont came out. 13 greens were introduced for the qualifying there and nobody had any experience on them. The 2nd hole was a riot--3 foot putts above the hole turned into pitches from the fringe below. LOL The cut line was 62 IIRC (61?) and that's what those green speeds did.

  IMO, minimum green speed for the qualifying should be 14.5 or higher. That 14.5 is the speed in the current WGT weekly single play and it really changes things. Speed up the greens, I say.  :-)

  The greens need to be even FASTER than 14.5. They need to be on the super or even ultra fast level. Those speeds give more realism in that you had BETTER be below the hole.

  That or make the greens firmer instead of the soft sponges that we have