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Ready Go Prediction Tool

• jayjonbeach 689 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 5:43 PM

  Great job on these and thanks for sharing. 

  My probabilities are very close to yours so extra helpful for me  :)  

  I just started playing them myself, have done about 10 so far.  Some crappy scores posted for a few of them like 35/36 but like Marioh says I stuck to them and came out with 50 at least.  After all 10 I am up 150, not bad not so good either. 

  I find the putting is more precise but I can't tell if that is because of the Oakmont update or if this is a RG characteristic, I started them about the same time Oak came out.   At any rate I am not putting up the kind of scores I should be so far, some is nerves/pressure also of course and just adjusting to them in general.  Not only that, before if I had a couple of bad holes and I was playing alone I would just ditch the round and start over, now playing these you have to suck it up and push on. 

  My average score for the 10 RG's is around 33/34 for 9 holes, before starting them my average would have been 32/33 so an increase for sure and so far no 30 of which I had many in other tourney's and ranked rounds and in the heavy wind too. 

  GL and see you on the boards

• lvietri 3,326 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 11:36 PM

  This may win me nerd of the month award .. but in the spirit of sharing ... here goes.

  I've tracked over 900 RG's I played in from Dec to May .... these are long spreadsheets.   Hopefully you can read all of it.    You will see each score I shot (down the left)  and the courses shot on (across the top).

  Chart 1 shows the AVERAGE place I finished on each course when I shot each score.   So for example when I shoot 29 on BP Back 9 .. i AVERAGE 2nd place.   If I shoot 32 on BP front I AVERAGE 6th place.    etc. etc.    You double your 100 credits when you wind up 10th or highter ... so this can give you a good indication of the scores you need to shoot to increase your credits in RG's.

  Chart 2 - The one you really want to see --- shows the AVERAGE payouts on each course when i shot each score.  So you can see to get your money back you need to shoot 32 on Kia Back, 33 on the Front 9 of all 3 courses and 34 on BP and St Andrews Back,  For 18 holes ... 66 seems to be the magic score to make your money back.

  Good Luck ...

  

  

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 4:55 AM

  I think I may have underestimated the degree of insanity........    ;-)

• ComplexP 250 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 5:47 AM

  Ivietri

  Wow that info is simply awesome! I can now run far more accurate simulations on my spreadsheets and have come up with some interesting results:

  Using Kiawah front nine as a test I've input your average winnings into the prediction tool and set my probabilies as following

  29 - 0%, 30 - 0%, 31 - 10%, 32 - 20%, 33 - 30%, 34 - 20%, 35 - 10%, 36 - 10%, 37 - 0%, 38 - 0%

  This is quite a conservative estimate for me as it's basically saying that my chances of scoring -4 or better are only 30% (but that I am also ensured of doing no worse than par).

  I've run multiple iterations and here are the results over 30 rounds...

  

  As can be seen, although the luck of the draw can produce some wildly different results, all of the scenarios point towards a net gain to a greater or lesser extent when taken over 30 rounds.

  Quite interesting I think.

• lvietri 3,326 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 6:15 AM

  Glad it helped ..... The one big assumption you need to consider are the course conditions.  For example people tend to shy away from those with High Winds and Slow Greens.    BP back 9 is a bear with those conditions but not too bad with Low Winds and Fast / Vfast greens.   WGT changes the conditions "occasionally" but it seems they stay on that course for about 3-4 weeks.  

  Anyway I have so much information it's ridiculous.   To those who read my posts i apologize --- while I try to act cool --- here is my bid for Geek of the Year.

  You'll see in the chart below the results of 914 RG's through May.  I am in the red on Kia 18, BP front and St A Back.  Avg W/L credits per tourney are on the right.  Here is my favorite statistic. While I have won 98,623 credits.  It cost me 91,300 to play 914 tourneys (one St A 18 was free).   I have netted a +7,323 credits.   That's $73.23 cents right ???   Wrong.   (see right side) I calculated that using the GI SD balls at 112 for 3 ... and if they I get five 9 hole rounds out of one ball --- the Ball cost was $86.84 cents.   So my net earnings for the Ready Go's are a MINUS $13.61.     While RG's are a lot of fun ... you have to be very very good to capitalize ...

  

• coolswing 1,017 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 7:54 AM

  Wow Lou ! i'm most impressed with your charts and stats keeping, awesome stuffs !

  You're certainly a man with many hidden talents bud ! :-)

  Thanks for sharing this info with all of us, makes very interesting reading and are very useful in many ways.  Keep up the good work bud, maybe you should consider coming out of retirement and take it on full time ! LOL !

• werksux 241 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 8:28 AM

  where the hell is the exit from this nerdery?  PLEASE LET ME OUT OF HERE!

• marioh 1,055 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 8:39 AM

  lvietri:

  While RG's are a lot of fun ... you have to be very very good to capitalize ...

  Or use cheaper balls.  :)

  I'm surprised you have an overall loss with the RG's. 

   

  The following are my averages for the RG's thru May 1st.

  K F9 - 32.76 (92 rds)

  K B9 - 32 (72 rds)

  SA F9 - 32.68 (60 rds)

  K 18 - 64.71 (52 rds)

  Out of all those rounds, I have only withdrawn from 1 RG, and that was by accident.

  I think the key to be able to make credits in the RG's and never have to worry about credits again is to have averages similar to mine, and have the ability to drop a 28/29 (59/60) on occasion.

• b0geybuster 2,574 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 10:17 AM

  werksux:

  where the hell is the exit from this nerdery?  PLEASE LET ME OUT OF HERE!

  I don't know if it is nerdery, but rather due dilegence.  

  I myself would not continually walk into a casino, sit down and play poker if I did not know exactly how I did previously and how much I was up or down.   Well not unless I had millions burning holes in my pockets.  

  Now if instead of all earnings recorded, only our profits where shown in our profiles, then maybe all this work would not be needed.

  Cheers

• tiffer67 1,764 Posts

  Thu, Jun 17 2010 10:39 AM

  Rather than profit, a true indicator of how good a player is in the RGs is their average credits per tournament. I have won a fair bit in them but I have to admit that is more down to volume than brilliance. My average is 155 credits per tournament but you go to any of the elite players and I'd wager theirs is a minimum of 225+ per tournament, some will be 300+.