Well,
On a real course, I'm sure you're not smashing the flag but have more power control over the shot which prevents it from ricocheting. As already mentioned, remove the flag and experience the lip-out fun. :)
As far as the head wind, the ball is going to experience wind resistance which will cause it to drop short so you have to find a formula to add yards to compensate for this friction. Equally, a tail wind will carry the ball so you'll need to subtract yards.
Realize, most masters here have an average around 64. These are the true masters of the game. Look at their games. -6 one game, -2 the next. That's just the way it goes.