cej0: I choose 4i rated at 205 average distance. I played the shot at 95% or so, which is usually around 195 yards
After 4 birdies you can't use words like that-or so, usually, around- because those 4 birdies put you in the next class and you have to tighten up the game or get exactly what you got. This is exactly how VEM works on you.
IDK what your 4i carries (do you?) but the 97 Nike 4i with that ball would carry 196 yards-14 less than the rated distance. If that holds true with your 4i, yours carries 191. Full back spin knocks down rated distances with the 33 Callaway. Take that and the estimate of your partial swing at 95% and I could see landing in that trap.
There's enough of an elevation change to facilitate that, too, it's 6 feet up and you have to carry 177 yards to clear the trap. Then that full back spin will make that ball sit still if you make it, it doesn't roll down.
IMO you discounted the elevation as it affects the iron carry and relied on a 6-8 wind for too much help, especially the way CBay is playing in that qualifier. Learn the carry numbers of your irons, they're excellent clubs but you have to know them. And know that a 4 biride start should put you on high alert to expect the game to get harder. That's when YOU take over and think more precisely. : -)
This was a 180 yard 6i with no spin from 187. It landed at 177 yards. Your 5i was prob the club to use.