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Tue, Feb 20 2018 9:12 AM (20 replies)
  • brekee
    26 Posts
    Mon, Feb 19 2018 6:45 PM

    K7JBQ:
    Average dropping is not an exact science, at least in my experience. With a saturated average of 61.9, sometimes my average drops with a round of 30, and sometimes it doesn't. But then, sometimes it still drops with a 31.

    You have scored 30 instead of 32. When your avg is 61.904 : it drops by 0.008 but remains 61.90 (61.896).

    You have scored 31 instead of 32. When your avg is 61.896 : it drops by 0.004 and is 61.89 (61.892)

    Math is always exact. :)

  • BPeterson8256
    2,940 Posts
    Mon, Feb 19 2018 10:44 PM

    Robert1893:

    BPeterson8256:

    Her scores that day were 32, then 35. 

    It was actually 29, 31, 35. The CC tournament is the Erin Hills score she’s referring to.

    Regardless, with that high of an average, there would need to be virtually zero variance in her base scores for a 29 to only lower the average by .01 (and it would need to be an effect of rounding ). 

    I stand corrected. However, it is still just math. We are obviously not being given the correct facts.

    K7JBQ:

    Average dropping is not an exact science

    You are wrong. I am not trying to be contrary, but there is nothing mysterious about math. Allow me to be more specific. I only have one documented example. Perhaps it is the exception, and I just lucked out.

    I kept track of every score as a Tour Legend on a spread sheet. (LOL I like spread sheets.) Anyway, I always knew exactly what my average would be the second I finished a round. There was never the slightest bit of variance.

    In addition,as anecdotal evidence, I had a good idea of what my scores were that were being replaced my last couple hundred rounds as a Legend. There were no surprises. If you understand the math, it will explain what you are seeing. It really is that simple. 

    The example given of a 30 not dropping the average sometimes, and a 31 dropping it occasionally, is to be expected. 

    To get your 500 rounds at a 60 average, you need those 500 rounds to equal 30,000 strokes.  K7JBQ, you are currently at about 30,950 strokes for 500 rounds. You need to drop 950 strokes to advance. I would guess that you are still dropping 64's or possibly higher. So if you keep track of your next few scores that are lower than 64, you will be able to see exactly what your average is doing. My apologies for not being able to explain better, but the tools you need are there. It is exact science.

    ...and since this has turned into a novel, why stop now. At 30,945 strokes, K7 will drop from 61.90 to 61.89. If he is exactly at 61.90 now, and shoots a 60 that replaces a 64, then he would still have 30,946 strokes, the average would not drop. If the next round he shoots a 63 that replaces a 64, then he will now have a total of 30,945 strokes, and the average will drop to 61.89. 

    Clear as mud? 

  • alosso
    21,087 Posts
    Mon, Feb 19 2018 10:53 PM

    Someone beat me to it ;)

    K7JBQ:
    Average dropping is not an exact science, at least in my experience.
    I'm sure it is. Mind you, it's programmed and executed in computers. There are no arbitrary comitee decisions ;)

    K7JBQ:
    With a saturated average of 61.9, sometimes my average drops with a round of 30, and sometimes it doesn't. But then, sometimes it still drops with a 31.

    Ever considered rounding inaccuracy?

    A saturated Legend average drops by .002 per stroke stripped off but the display has two digits only. Thus, any score which strips off four or less strokes (-.008 on the average) may or may not affect the display. Your 30 may have stayed in the limits, and the 31 will have pushed it over.

    K7JBQ:
    it's a long hard grind to 60.0
    Nitpickingly, it's less or equal to 60.000. A 60.002, rounded to a display of 60.00, will not lead to tier promotion ;)

    Plus, it's not the general grind to bring the average down but the special grind to collect 500 scores to form that 60.000 average.

    And you are right: Staring at the average don't help anybody - it only diminishes the fun!

  • BPeterson8256
    2,940 Posts
    Mon, Feb 19 2018 11:00 PM

    alosso:

    Someone beat me to it ;)

    Barely  😂 

  • Vaibhav5viv
    886 Posts
    Tue, Feb 20 2018 4:46 AM

    BPeterson8256:
    If he is exactly at 61.90 now, and shoots a 60 that replaces a 64, then he would still have 30,946 strokes, the average would not drop

    Everything else correct barring this ;)

    Average would drop at 30947. At 61.9 avg, he could have 30948-30952 strokes played right now. 

  • BPeterson8256
    2,940 Posts
    Tue, Feb 20 2018 5:08 AM

    Vaibhav5viv:

    BPeterson8256:
    If he is exactly at 61.90 now, and shoots a 60 that replaces a 64, then he would still have 30,946 strokes, the average would not drop

    Everything else correct barring this ;)

    Average would drop at 30947. At 61.9 avg, he could have 30948-30952 strokes played right now. 

    I'll buy that. I was never sure how they worked the rounding. And yes, if it isn't exactly 61.90, it could be within a 5 stroke window.

    Brett

  • Robert1893
    7,729 Posts
    Tue, Feb 20 2018 7:09 AM

    BPeterson8256:
    I stand corrected. However, it is still just math. We are obviously not being given the correct facts.


    On both counts, I absolutely agree. Never suggested otherwise. :-) 

    As I mentioned, if the person was saturated before shooting the 29, given that the person's current average is much higher,* there's no way that shooting a 29 would only lower the person's total average by .01, unless there were virtually 0 variance among the 500 scores. Then it would be possible.

    But for 500 scores, zero variance is just not realistic. That's especially so because we can see the person's previous scores, which includes at least one score of at least 40. 

     

     

    *For the pedantic among us, yes, I realize that the 29 doubles to a 58 for calculating the average. Still, the difference between 58 and 66 remains relatively large. 

  • WigerToods2010
    8,448 Posts
    Tue, Feb 20 2018 7:50 AM

    BPeterson8256:
    I kept track of every score as a Tour Legend on a spread sheet.

    Some folk are just sad. I mean, really man?  C'mon...

     

    (Click image for full sized version)*

    Pfft.

    *from approx' 5 years ago.

  • BPeterson8256
    2,940 Posts
    Tue, Feb 20 2018 7:55 AM

    WigerToods2010:

    BPeterson8256:
    I kept track of every score as a Tour Legend on a spread sheet.

    Some folk are just sad. I mean, really man?  C'mon...

     

    (Click image for full sized version)*

    Pfft.

    *from approx' 5 years ago.

    😂 i knew i couldn't be all alone. 

  • Robert1893
    7,729 Posts
    Tue, Feb 20 2018 8:44 AM

    This is from when I was progressing through Legend tier.

     

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