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When to dodge deviation

• DannyPhan 1,013 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 11:38 AM

  chrisironsbones:

  This is only my conclusion from what i've noticed and wrote down, (maybe its a coincidence) its up to you to decide.  Any way, what i've noticed is when i enter ready go's which are quite empty, less than 20 or so, i always score well, the average for 10 rounds which i noted down was 59 (all ready go's in which were not filled past 20).  I also jotted down the ready go's i had entered after 30 had entered, the average's of these ready go's varied between 64 and 61(best), but half were withdrawn from due to shots not being right (deviation probably, things like 100 wedge in 14 mph tailwind going 96 yards etc, etc)

  It is just the opposite for me, if I'm early that's when my drives go errant, I 3-4 putt 6ft putts etc...

  When I'm a late entry I seem to do better, at least I end up in the money.

  I know I sound like I need that tin-foil hat as well but it sure seems that way.

   

• Jerm65 1,413 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 12:32 PM

  Tailored in what way, YJ?

  Hopefully you're not suggesting that there are only so many good shots or scores to be "allocated" in a given tournament?  That's certainly not what Niv was saying.

  A dinged shot will always land within a prescribed distance of your aiming point (the circle of precision)...but it may or may not land exactly where you aimed it (the deviation).  AND....over enough rounds....things will even out with regards to the distribution of a player's dinged shots within said circle.

  In other words....given a sufficiently large number of rounds, every player will see roughly the same number of dinged shots end up on the outer edge of the circle, and roughly the same number end up in the middle of the circle, as any other player.

  It's like flipping a coin.....do it enough times and the number of heads and tails will be roughly equal.  Does that mean that if you and I both flipped a coin 18 times, we would each have results of 9 heads and 9 tails?  No.  I could have 18 heads and you could have 18 tails.  However...if we flip the coin 18 million times....we'll probably both end up with very close to 9 million heads and 9 million tails each.

  I reckon Chris is simply on a long run of "tails".

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 12:55 PM

  Jerm65:

  Hopefully you're not suggesting that there are only so many good shots or scores to be "allocated" in a given tournament?  That's certainly not what Niv was saying.

  Not at all. Where Niv was pointing out that the range of shot results over the entire number of shots was consistent, I was wondering if that same thing applied on a much smaller scale involving only the players in a particular RG.

  I guess it would be like saying the number of shots it took for 50 players to complete a RG is a finite number. The odds are against more than a few of them being exactly alike so as the tournament progresses the number of deviations needed to fulfill the above scenario would shrink. If, by sheer odds, all of the "good" deviations were used up in the first 1/2 of the scores posted then the 2nd 1/2 of the field would experience the "bad" deviations more.

  Now THAT'S some serious tin foil action.  LMAO

• DarSum 1,440 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 12:59 PM

  If you enter early but don't play do you secure that low score? (fingers crossed this one work, if not see next question)

  What happens if you enter early, play 3 holes, quit, come back when it's full and play the rest? (there's a couple RGs I'm struggling with the par 3 1st on one and 2nd on the other. If I dont have time to play it but enter early maybe I can birdie those holes then quit and finish out) Oh *** wait. That means I'll probably end up parring the easy par 4s and par 5. Dangit.

  What happens if you enter early, play like a donkey, blame WGT, and WD? (nevermind I know the answer to this one, MAKE A NEW THREAD!)

  Please keep track of these for the next week and post your results.

  mmmmk, thanks

   

• Kindle2010 602 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 4:30 PM

  LMOA, to funny

   

• jvr86 799 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 8:25 PM

  Hi, you have your stats and that is ok.... im not telling that you are wrong either because i really have no idea on how this work... but here comes my theory!

   

  May be is not abut you entering late or earlier.. may be is on your mind. Let me explain:

  If you are one of the first entrans... may be you feel relaxed, calm because there is no hurry to finish it, so yo play wise, slow... and more conentrate.... so you play well

  if you are one of the middle entrans... 30-40.. you can become a little obseced to score well because you want the credits soon to buy balls, oar equipement or simply enter another ready to go. But you are not in a hurry either; but not as calm as if you were one of the first entratns... that is why yo stil get a decent one.

  In you are one of the last you are in a hurry, so you play desperately and you can play with less brain and more intuition or feel.... 

   

  dont get mad please, just a different poiny of view for not to invalidate your point :)

   

   

• jvr86 799 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 8:53 PM

  the best thing, I found, to do when you grab a bad deviation or vem or what ever you want to call it is to keep playing lol... that is the only way you will be able to learn how to handle those dificults times.

  normally in a unlimited play if we have a bogey on # 1 we restart, but what happens in a ready to go, or a c.c single play'... we can witdraw, sure. or we can try to beat the beast:

   

  

   

  that was a long time ago, but I keep it in my profile to remember me that there is nothing lost until its lost :D

   

  cheers.

• YancyCan 3,027 Posts

  Thu, Dec 8 2011 8:55 PM

  BolloxInBruges:

  Better ask santa for an industrial sized roll of tin-foil this year mate.

  Bollox - please refer anyone seeking bulk tin-foil purchases. I am sitting on 22 pallets full, in addition to our usual usage stock.

  Thank You

  My name is Yancy

• chrisironsbones 3,524 Posts

  Fri, Dec 9 2011 3:21 AM

  Javier, i play fast whatever the circumstances, so your theory is not quite right, although a good one none the less, and every one else, i came up with all this due to the numerous posts i was getting on my wall from different people who were saying they havn't heard from me in a while (seems that my bull5hit keeps people amused)..LOL, so i had to come up with a biggy...but as for the tin foil, there's not a chance in hell you can find a roll of tin foil in my town, its down to those damn junkies who've bled the shops dry, so i hope i can get some off yancy instead.  Preferably in a golfing style: