Why didn't you take the water out of play completely. You're asking for trouble taking the water on when you have the fairway to aim at. You nearly made 2 really good approach shots. A yard further to the left and you were next to the pin, so going over the water in the first place was a mistake.
Also a headwind with full back will knock yardage of the shot no matter how small the wind. Especially with long shots as there is more wind to slow the ball down. The ball hangs in the air and goes even higher, hence if you hit a wedge into the wind, you will get a lot more backspin on the green.
Its easy to blame WGT for bad shots and errors in judgement, yet we are human and always look for an excuse for something we don't quite understand. This game in particular.
TT.