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BASEBALL: The Strasburg question

• JaLaBar 1,254 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 9:24 AM

  So, a little background.  I grew up in the DC suburbs of Maryland.  While we had a (very bad) baseball team in DC, up the road 45 minutes was a team that folks of a certain age will remember may have been the class of MLB from the mid-60s through the early 80s.  So, I grew up an Orioles' fan.  As such, I have seen my favorite team win a couple World Series, and compete for quite a few more.

  However, as the '90s changed into the 2000s, the Orioles' ownership became more and more unpalatable until I couldn't stand to be a fan of the team any longer.  The Angelos carcinoma drove me away from my team.  At first, I swore off baseball.  But when the Nats moved from Montreal, and they had an enthusiastic success at first, they drew me in despite that I had long since moved from the area.

  So, in the Washington DC area, you have a strange dynamic when it comes to sports.  There are soooo many transplants that nearly half the fans have a secondary rooting interest, regardless of sport, but even moreso in baseball where many of the Nats' fans were Os' fans.

  Now, the Nationals this season look like the class of the National League, which brings up a dilemma that is causing some serious debate in the DC area.  Stephen Strasburg, (one of) the Nationals' ace pitcher, is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.  Strasburg is not only the Nats' ace... he has the potential to be a historically good pitcher, and I mean maybe the best ever.  David 'Big Papi' Ortiz has face the best pitchers baseball has had to offer over the last 10-12+ seasons, and he faced Strasburg and said "He has the best stuff I have ever seen".  I will second what Big Papi said and say that as a spectator, Strasburg has the best stuff I have ever seen.  Chapman of Cincinatti has a better fastball, but not the command, control, and secondary pitches Stras has.

  So, the medical profession basically through study of all the pitchers since Tommy John to have the 'Tommy John' surgery, 160 innings is the most they should throw the first full season back... give or take 10 innings.  (One of the Other) Nationals' ace Jordan Zimmermann is a shining example, who came back last year after the surgery, threw 165 innings, and is thriving this year.  Most of the experts also agree that it is worse on a pitchers arm to stop him and then start him back up.  So, the Nationals' plan, which they have never wavered from, is to shut Strasburg down in early September, and not pitch him AT ALL.

  And here is the dilemma and debate:  Going into this season, the Nats looked like a contender for a wild card.  But now, they look like they could be a contender to represent the National League in the WS.  They have had without question the best pitching in baseball thus far.  And they plan to shut down arguably their best starter, and definitely the starter with the best stuff, in the heat of the pennant race before the playoffs begin.

  There is one school of thought, that I tend to side with, that says that four of the five starters are locked up for 4 more years anyway, the majority of the bullpen as well, and the offense is young and improving.  Strasburg has the potential to be historically good, and you don't jeopardize that for one roll of the dice.  That this team is good enough that they will certainly be in this position again, especially with a healthy Strasburg, and though it will tear him up to have to watch the end of the season from the sidelines, it would be worse to turn him into the next Mark Prior instead of the next Walter Johnson.

  Of course, the other school of thought states that you have a chance, right now, and you take that chance.  Look at Kansas City, which had numerous chances in the 70s and 80s, got one, and no more.  Look at Atlanta.... all those chances, one title.  Look at the teams that went years... the Red Sox, White Sox... Look at the teams that have never won one, like the Rangers, Padres, Astros.  You don't know that this isn't your best chance, you have to take it.  And here is where the strange dynamic comes in.  The newer Nats' fans, usually either those from the area that never were 'fans' before the Nats or those from other areas that never had winners, are of the 'go for broke' mentality.  But the Nats fans that were Orioles' fans, or fans of other teams that have won, are more on the 'save him for next year'.

  Of course, Stras says that 'they will have to rip the ball from his hands', but you want your ace to say that.  You want the best player on a very good team to say "I'll pitch for this team until my arm falls off".  But is that what is best for the long term interest of the team?  I think the Nationals brass have said "Yeah, I see the Royals, who won one and have never been so close again... we'd rather be the Yankees".

  My reasons for siding with the 'sit him' group:  a couple.  First, yes... if he stays healthy, he could be the best pitcher baseball has ever seen.  He has a problem right now in that no one can hit his pitches...he strikes out too many batters.  He leads the majors in strikeouts... not per inning (though that too) but number of strikeouts... despite averaging only 6IP per start.  The inability of major league hitters to hit his best stuff results in him throwing too many pitches.  He needs to learn to pitch to contact more.  But he throws a 96-100mph 4 seam that breaks slightly, a diving 93-94 2 seam, a 90-92 changeup that falls off the table, and one of the nastiest 88 mph curves I've ever seen.  And every one of them looks the same until it's on the way to the plate.  Guess what's coming?  Hitters can not.  And he's just learning.  You don't take a chance on his health now.

  But I have one more reason... actually 4 more reasons.

  13 - 5  3.13ERA 1.11WHIP 133K 47BB .197BAA 118IP 14QS (quality starts)

  7 - 6  2.31ERA 1.07WHIP 90K 23BB .238BAA 128IP 18QS (out of 20, leads NL)

  5 - 6  3.73ERA  1.15WHIP 86K 34BB .230BAA 113IP 11QS

  5 - 3  3.01ERA  1.22WHIP 62K 27BB .247BAA  92IP 6QS

  Those are the Nats' other 4 starters, and they stack up against any playoff rotation of any other NL team.  Respectively Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler.  Gio was a top NL Cy candidate and NL All-Star (after being an AS for the AL last year) though he hasn't been as effective the last month or so.  Edwin Jackson has been steady and eaten innings, as Edwin Jackson always does.  Detwiler has only been a starter for part of the season, and as the number 5 hasn't gotten as many innings, but as his 3ERA attests, he has been very effective.  And Jordan Zimmermann may be evolving into one the best pitchers in baseball.  Leads the NL in quality starts, near the top in ERA, has gone at least 6 in every start, near the top in WHIP.  So the Nats will be fine in the pennant race and post-season without Strasburg, and in seasons to come with a healthy Strasburg.

  But I'd like to hear what the other baseball fans among us think.  Do you go all in and take the chance on 'Prior and Wood-izing' Strasburg on a chance at a Series, or sit him in accord with medical advice and take the chance that you blew the last best chance to win a Series? Discuss.

• AvatarLee 1,644 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 10:32 AM

  Outside the box here but... move him to the BP, long or middle relief, restricted duty.  Throwing some simulated games to stay 'somewhat' fresh... then put him back in the rotation at #3 or #4 spot if/when they make the playoffs.

  Always a hard decision... I'm a huge Jays fan... remembering back to the close calls in the late 80s and the glory days in the early 90s.  B2B 92-93 series and back then Pat Gillick was of the mentality of get it now while you can.  Fortunately they didn't have this kind of injury situation to deal with at the time, but they did "rent" a lot of talent to put them over the top.

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 11:52 AM

  Strassburg is one guy. There's 24 other guys that are making the Nats as good as they are today. I would definitely be on the side that says don't burn him out but shutting him down does bad things to the head. The Yankees tried that with the "Joba Rules" when they tried to make him a starter. They jerked around with his pitch counts, he didn't so real well as a starter, they put him back in the pen and in the end he was a mess. I believe the Yankees overthought the whole process and shot themselves in the foot. He didn't know if he was coming or going. Now, after having that same surgery, he's back on track as a setup guy and should be back in August. IMO, the Yankees were too careful with him and it cost both of them.

  The Nats say they want to be the Yankees, not the Royals. Build the fan base, set the tone for the future, take care of your players and give them a reason for wanting to stay put. Don't turn into a one year wonder or worse, a Miami, and shoot yourself in the foot. Washington is going to need the funds to combat the free agency threat and that will come from the fans and networks. Produce a consistent winner and the fans will come. Strassburg and Harper are 2 great players to build a franchise around.

  I am happy for the Nats and their team. I live in what used to be the AAA home of the Orioles and got to watch how Angelos absolutely destroyed the club. (Mike Mussina should never have been a Yankee.) Camden Yards was Yankee Stadium south. More Yankee fans attended games there than did Oriole fans. Fortunately, Buck Showalter has the ship somewhat righted and the birds are playing over .500 ball. Unfortunately they're in the toughest division in baseball. Washington is in the same situation-they're in a tough division. Strass can't win all the games for them but he sure could keep filling the seats if the Nats play their cards right. Just don't let him become another Mussina (although I wouldn't cry if he were in pinstripes.)  ;-)

  p.s., Pitching in the AL is quite different than the NL so the stats might not translate. That Strassball sure does though.

• JaLaBar 1,254 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 11:59 AM

  One other thing I didn't mention:  Aside from the surgery limiting his innings, Strasburg has never thrown more than 123 innings in a season at any level.  I think limiting him to a 40 inning increase is prudent following the surgery.

  I think, if you told the Nats there was a 100% chance you'd get to, and a 90% chance win, a World Series this year if you let Stras continue to pitch, they would probably do it, and with all the 'sit him' sayers blessings.  But there isn't.   Could you live with wrecking what could be a historic career over the toss of the dice?  If it's me, I sit him and live with the consequences this year.  And if they do... and if this young man has to sit on the sidelines and watch the pennant race, and watch playoff games... he's gonna be chomping at the bit, and when they take the reins off next season, you could see a historically good season from Mr. Strasburg.  As far as what they could have him do instead of just sit and watch...

  .323BA  .400OBP  .548SLG  .948OPS

  Those are Stras' batting numbers.  So he could pinch hit.  Wonder if he can play a position (and yes, for the record, he not only has the best stuff I have ever seen when pitching, he's also the best hitting pitcher I have ever seen)?

• JaLaBar 1,254 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 12:18 PM

  YankeeJim:

  The Nats say they want to be the Yankees, not the Royals. Build the fan base, set the tone for the future, take care of your players and give them a reason for wanting to stay put. Don't turn into a one year wonder or worse, a Miami, and shoot yourself in the foot. Washington is going to need the funds to combat the free agency threat and that will come from the fans and networks. Produce a consistent winner and the fans will come. Strassburg and Harper are 2 great players to build a franchise around.

  I like most of what you said, but I don't think the Joba rules apply here.  Joba was babied to try to prevent him from having to have the surgery, then ended up injured and needing it anyway.  Stras was started on normal work, got injured and had the surgery.  So we are talking about his first full year back AFTER the surgery.  I thought the Yankees babied Joba too much before the injury.  Next year, I don't think you'll see Stras over 200, but they won't baby him.  The main thing Davey Johnson said was that if Stras wants innings he needs to learn to lower his pitch count... pitch to contact.  I also think that shutting him down will mess with his head a bit, but I don't think it will be a long-term negative.  He (and the other players, both on the Nats and around the league) will see that the team puts HIS best interest above winning.  That can't hurt.

  What I take issue with is the statement I bolded above, typical of Yankee hubris'.  The Nationals owners, the Lerners, are the richest owners in professional sports.  They have more money than the Yankees.  They have a bad TV deal due to the MLB letting Angelos hold them hostage when the Expos were moved, but that is being renegotiated and won't last forever.  But they certainly don't need to worry about the funds to keep the players they have.  The key was acquiring the right players... not being Steinbrenner of the 70s and early 80s, or Dan Snyder of the Redskins, or Angelos of the late 90s-early 2000s Orioles, wasting money on aging players to get you close to the promised land.  The Nats have built a young team, centered around pitching, with a team with speed and power and defensive acumen up and down the lineup, almost all of it mid-20s and younger.  They will pay to keep what they have.  See Ryan Zimmerman.  Most of what they have now is locked up for at least the next four years anyway.

  And despite giving away 4 top prospects to get Gio Gonzalez, the Nats farm system is still stocked with major league prospects... and when Strasburg shuts down, they have John Lannan sitting at AAA waiting to slide into his spot (along with Ming-Wang on DL).

• JaLaBar 1,254 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 12:23 PM

  Of course, just happening to be the absolute worst team in baseball two straight years when two generational talents were available at #1 the following years helps.  It may be looked back in later years as the two best back to back year first draft picks in any team's history.

• JaLaBar 1,254 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 12:34 PM

  JaLaBar:

  .323BA  .400OBP  .548SLG  .948OPS

  Those are Stras' batting numbers.  So he could pinch hit.  Wonder if he can play a position (and yes, for the record, he not only has the best stuff I have ever seen when pitching, he's also the best hitting pitcher I have ever seen)?

  Funny... quoting myself.  But Stras is the only pitcher I have ever seen fans flock to see him hit BP.  Truth.

  He puts on a show.  Jim, I wonder if he's not the best hitting pitcher since that old Yankee? Guy named Ruth.

• mnshiner 1,382 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 12:38 PM

  Gentlemen, it is a no win situation. My personal belief is that the medical profession is trying to protect this young mans career by not wanting him to throw more than he should. He blows his arm out what good is he to the Nationals or any other team.

  Think long term which most owners don't. My friend Mr. Jim brought up Daniel Snyder. You cannot buy a winning team but you need to keep a winner on it.

  I have to give Mr. George credit with the Yankees he spent the money and his players were able to play for him and the manager (lets don't leave him out) but in the Nationals scheme of things they should take it slow and enjoy playing the game. Winning isn't everything, it's the thrill of knowing that I made to the Big Leagues thru hard work and determination. Many hours of practice, dragging your parents away from their busy schedule to watch or take you to practice or games.

  Going to tell on my age now but back in the late 60's (real late) I had scouts from the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs coming to my house to sign a minor league contract. My father with tears in his eyes told them that they were waisting their time because the doctor said I would never be able to throw again.

  Sliding into second base head first during a high school ball game I jammed my right arm up as far as it would go tearing everything. To this day years later it is all I can do to throw a fishing lure from a fishing rod.

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 1:15 PM

  JaLaBar:

  Of course, just happening to be the absolute worst team in baseball two straight years when two generational talents were available at #1 the following years helps.  It may be looked back in later years as the two best back to back year first draft picks in any team's history.

  Trout and Trumbo make a case for the Angels on that. As for the owners having all that dough, so do the hapless Chicago Cubs and you see where they're at. It's all about the ring. If the team isn't winning and playing in October that money is nothing to the player. Witness Cliff Lee. He thought a ring was a lock in Philly and you see what that got him.

  The smarts of the ownership is what to watch. The way they handle Strass could be the indication. And when FA does roll around they're going to have some serious payroll if they plan to keep everybody. With the stupid numbers average players are commanding, guys like Harper and Strassburg aren't going to be cheap. Arrogance or not, that's the way it works. 

  Billy Bean changed the landscape. You don't have to spend big to win. The new Steinbrenners play to that and if you look past AFlop's number, the going rate for the players the Yankees have is in line and they can afford to pay them. The money doesn't come out of their pockets, it comes from what I mentioned above. How long will the Washington ownership put up with a cash cow with no ring? Not long, I suspect. Build the franchise and get it paying for itself. 

  Plus, maybe Broadway can rewrite Damned Yankees. Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.  LOL. Great flick. I rooted for the Senators in that one. :-)

• oneputtdavid 1,337 Posts

  Thu, Jul 26 2012 1:57 PM

  JaLaBar:

  And despite giving away 4 top prospects to get Gio Gonzalez, the Nats farm system is still stocked with major league prospects... and when Strasburg shuts down, they have John Lannan sitting at AAA waiting to slide into his spot (along with Ming-Wang on DL).

   Tiger fan here J', love to talk BB. Strais' is a big kid (6-4 225) w/ML talent! I don't think I'd be out of line to compare him (talent wise), to JV at this stage in his career. Haven't followed the "Senators" (sorry) Nationals sense the Howard years. oops my age is leaking lol 

  However........your ? was? Do we sit Stras' while were in contention? Absolutely not!!!!!! Fanbase support are a priority for this team right now! Next year is always next year if your not willing to play for THIS year now! 

  Nat's paid DEARLY for this kid, 3 yrs ago and unfortionally he blew out his arm! S##t happens!

  So what happens if you shut him down this year, and next year he blows out his arm again?........$$$$ already paid, give me some return now! Next year will take care of itself.

  Just my thoughts...........David

  BTW....Strass; isnt going to fill the seats, every day!  But Harper and Zimm; can!