So, a little background. I grew up in the DC suburbs of Maryland. While we had a (very bad) baseball team in DC, up the road 45 minutes was a team that folks of a certain age will remember may have been the class of MLB from the mid-60s through the early 80s. So, I grew up an Orioles' fan. As such, I have seen my favorite team win a couple World Series, and compete for quite a few more.
However, as the '90s changed into the 2000s, the Orioles' ownership became more and more unpalatable until I couldn't stand to be a fan of the team any longer. The Angelos carcinoma drove me away from my team. At first, I swore off baseball. But when the Nats moved from Montreal, and they had an enthusiastic success at first, they drew me in despite that I had long since moved from the area.
So, in the Washington DC area, you have a strange dynamic when it comes to sports. There are soooo many transplants that nearly half the fans have a secondary rooting interest, regardless of sport, but even moreso in baseball where many of the Nats' fans were Os' fans.
Now, the Nationals this season look like the class of the National League, which brings up a dilemma that is causing some serious debate in the DC area. Stephen Strasburg, (one of) the Nationals' ace pitcher, is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Strasburg is not only the Nats' ace... he has the potential to be a historically good pitcher, and I mean maybe the best ever. David 'Big Papi' Ortiz has face the best pitchers baseball has had to offer over the last 10-12+ seasons, and he faced Strasburg and said "He has the best stuff I have ever seen". I will second what Big Papi said and say that as a spectator, Strasburg has the best stuff I have ever seen. Chapman of Cincinatti has a better fastball, but not the command, control, and secondary pitches Stras has.
So, the medical profession basically through study of all the pitchers since Tommy John to have the 'Tommy John' surgery, 160 innings is the most they should throw the first full season back... give or take 10 innings. (One of the Other) Nationals' ace Jordan Zimmermann is a shining example, who came back last year after the surgery, threw 165 innings, and is thriving this year. Most of the experts also agree that it is worse on a pitchers arm to stop him and then start him back up. So, the Nationals' plan, which they have never wavered from, is to shut Strasburg down in early September, and not pitch him AT ALL.
And here is the dilemma and debate: Going into this season, the Nats looked like a contender for a wild card. But now, they look like they could be a contender to represent the National League in the WS. They have had without question the best pitching in baseball thus far. And they plan to shut down arguably their best starter, and definitely the starter with the best stuff, in the heat of the pennant race before the playoffs begin.
There is one school of thought, that I tend to side with, that says that four of the five starters are locked up for 4 more years anyway, the majority of the bullpen as well, and the offense is young and improving. Strasburg has the potential to be historically good, and you don't jeopardize that for one roll of the dice. That this team is good enough that they will certainly be in this position again, especially with a healthy Strasburg, and though it will tear him up to have to watch the end of the season from the sidelines, it would be worse to turn him into the next Mark Prior instead of the next Walter Johnson.
Of course, the other school of thought states that you have a chance, right now, and you take that chance. Look at Kansas City, which had numerous chances in the 70s and 80s, got one, and no more. Look at Atlanta.... all those chances, one title. Look at the teams that went years... the Red Sox, White Sox... Look at the teams that have never won one, like the Rangers, Padres, Astros. You don't know that this isn't your best chance, you have to take it. And here is where the strange dynamic comes in. The newer Nats' fans, usually either those from the area that never were 'fans' before the Nats or those from other areas that never had winners, are of the 'go for broke' mentality. But the Nats fans that were Orioles' fans, or fans of other teams that have won, are more on the 'save him for next year'.
Of course, Stras says that 'they will have to rip the ball from his hands', but you want your ace to say that. You want the best player on a very good team to say "I'll pitch for this team until my arm falls off". But is that what is best for the long term interest of the team? I think the Nationals brass have said "Yeah, I see the Royals, who won one and have never been so close again... we'd rather be the Yankees".
My reasons for siding with the 'sit him' group: a couple. First, yes... if he stays healthy, he could be the best pitcher baseball has ever seen. He has a problem right now in that no one can hit his pitches...he strikes out too many batters. He leads the majors in strikeouts... not per inning (though that too) but number of strikeouts... despite averaging only 6IP per start. The inability of major league hitters to hit his best stuff results in him throwing too many pitches. He needs to learn to pitch to contact more. But he throws a 96-100mph 4 seam that breaks slightly, a diving 93-94 2 seam, a 90-92 changeup that falls off the table, and one of the nastiest 88 mph curves I've ever seen. And every one of them looks the same until it's on the way to the plate. Guess what's coming? Hitters can not. And he's just learning. You don't take a chance on his health now.
But I have one more reason... actually 4 more reasons.
13 - 5 3.13ERA 1.11WHIP 133K 47BB .197BAA 118IP 14QS (quality starts)
7 - 6 2.31ERA 1.07WHIP 90K 23BB .238BAA 128IP 18QS (out of 20, leads NL)
5 - 6 3.73ERA 1.15WHIP 86K 34BB .230BAA 113IP 11QS
5 - 3 3.01ERA 1.22WHIP 62K 27BB .247BAA 92IP 6QS
Those are the Nats' other 4 starters, and they stack up against any playoff rotation of any other NL team. Respectively Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler. Gio was a top NL Cy candidate and NL All-Star (after being an AS for the AL last year) though he hasn't been as effective the last month or so. Edwin Jackson has been steady and eaten innings, as Edwin Jackson always does. Detwiler has only been a starter for part of the season, and as the number 5 hasn't gotten as many innings, but as his 3ERA attests, he has been very effective. And Jordan Zimmermann may be evolving into one the best pitchers in baseball. Leads the NL in quality starts, near the top in ERA, has gone at least 6 in every start, near the top in WHIP. So the Nats will be fine in the pennant race and post-season without Strasburg, and in seasons to come with a healthy Strasburg.
But I'd like to hear what the other baseball fans among us think. Do you go all in and take the chance on 'Prior and Wood-izing' Strasburg on a chance at a Series, or sit him in accord with medical advice and take the chance that you blew the last best chance to win a Series? Discuss.