Here's how I have been going about looking at it recently Renni.
We all know this kind of stuff happens and from what I can tell based on the patent post people have made about how the variation model works is basically as you do better and better the system keeps asking if you have reached a threshold and should the variation be more. I have no idea if that can happen hole be hole or if its round by round or whatever, but we all know that if we start posting really good rounds, especially if credits are involved, then the variation will increase and our need to be spot on with everything we do in the game will increase.
So the way I see it lately, and this is so i can maintain some composure and keep some sanity and still have fun while playing, is if a bad round is happening I just need to get through it as fast as possible. Play the rounds and stay focused but when the VEM crap is hitting the fan, just chuckle and push through it, know that somewhere down the line is a great round. If I am playing RGs or for credits, I try and time the more important rounds for when it appears the variation is going to lay off a bit and play the cheapies or non important rounds when I feel I am gonna get dumped on.
As I progress I do see the need for some of the variation. If it weren't there we would all be posting sub 50 rounds on 18. Its not perfect and can be crazy annoying, especially when you ding a 6 foot putt and you have it about 9-12 inches outside the cup to account for break and you watch it come off the putter blade 2 inches outside cup and sit as it breaks and rolls under the cup, having absolutely no chance. However, plenty of times when i miss the ding horribly on a similar putt to watch it hit the bottom of the cup.
I guess with this variation it is all swings and roundabouts.