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Will anybody ever make it to Champion?

• bhoese 679 Posts

  Wed, Aug 5 2015 7:26 PM

  Before the introduction of the Tour Legend tier, Legend averages saturated at 400 ranked rounds - that is, only a player's best 400 rounds counted in his average, and the average could only move down, never up.  When TL was added, that number was increased to 500.  Any previous scores that were not included in the 400 were disregarded, and the previously saturated players had "floating" averages (which could move up or down) until saturation was reached again at 500 rounds.

  It was only upon reaching saturation at 500 rounds that a Legend would be eligible to become a Tour Legend.  An average of 60 was also needed.

  When the Champion tier was introduced last week, the calculation of the average was again changed - but saturated TLs remained saturated, and some TLs with floating averages have reported that their averages are now only moving down.  There is more to the story that I won't repeat here, but the short version is that it appears that only 200 rounds are now being counted.  These 200 rounds were the worst 200 of those that were being counted for any given player before the change occurred, and are being replaced by better rounds as they happen.

  WGT hasn't disclosed what the new average threshold is to reach Champion, but they did inform the community that previously saturated players will need 200 additional rounds to qualify.

  I don't think it's just a coincidence that 200 rounds were to be added to the calculation, and now only 200 rounds are getting counted.  It's as though the program was supposed to be written to expand the set to include the next 200 rounds after round #500, but it got inverted to only capture the 200 rounds leading up to #500.

  I'm concerned that WGT made a mistake when it changed the average calculation for TLs to a set of 200 rounds, and that this mistake will make it impossible for any player to reach the Champion tier.  The program likely stops counting ranked rounds when saturation is reached.  Therefore, if the algorithm asks a question like "is RR=700 and AVG <= 58", which is the kind of question that a program likely asks, the answer will always be no.  Nobody will ever get promoted.

  If the new average is supposed to only consider 200 rounds, then what is stopping the players with low averages from promotion to Champion right now?  Surely the threshold is higher than the averages of the best TLs.

   

   

   

   

   

• Jimbog1964 8,378 Posts

  Wed, Aug 5 2015 8:00 PM

  bhoese:

  and some TLs with floating averages have reported that their averages are now only moving down.

  Look first of all thanks for your always v interesting, insightful and well thought out posting.

  Now just for the sake of not asking, unlikely needed i know, these are TL who play real RRs and hand in cards usually, not the has to be a 25 or don't hand it in brigade?

  Good post.  Whether I think the new tier is well doe or not I guess some are out there burning not cheap balls for the badge, and it's their time and money.   

  Hopefully a mod will comment on this one.......always hope, maybe (:

• alosso 21,073 Posts

  Wed, Aug 5 2015 10:53 PM

  bhoese:

  The program likely stops counting ranked rounds when saturation is reached.  Therefore, if the algorithm asks a question like "is RR=700 and AVG <= 58", which is the kind of question that a program likely asks, the answer will always be no.  Nobody will ever get promoted.

  The 700 was but a players' guess when we learned about the additional 200 rounds - and analogy ot the 400+100 situation for L => TL. Later, we learned about the probable 200+200 scenario and may now consider that 400 might be the new saturation. (I'm reluctant to believe so because I'd expect the number to rise).

  bhoese:

  If the new average is supposed to only consider 200 rounds, then what is stopping the players with low averages from promotion to Champion right now?

  It's "200 extra rounds", just like the 100 extras for the first TLs.

• hakman123 2,119 Posts

  Wed, Aug 5 2015 11:29 PM

  We know definitely that TLs with over 500 RRs had their averages reset based on their worst 200 contributing RRs. So heavily saturated TLs had their average move very little, while newly saturated TLs moved quite a bit in some cases. Also unsaturated TLs with more than 200 Ranked Rounds were treated the same way - with their worst 200 contributing RRs making up their new average - and hence becoming saturated overnight. Members of this latter group saw their averages move the most - as they had yet to kill off the bad rounds in their unsaturated set of scores, and all the low scores were removed.

  These questions remain:-

  Was the intention to move TL saturation from 500 to 700, and this then become the required RRs for promotion to Champion Tier?

  What now happens to TLs with <200 RRs ? Do they become saturated at 200 like the latter group above. Or will it be 400, 500 or 700.  All are possible.

  The question of "will anyone ever be promoted to Champion" is likely to be answered very soon. Some of the crazy TLs like sebicu will have their 200 RRs up by the end of this weekend - and have a low enough average to be promoted (I assume sub 53 will do it!). So if there are no Champions by Monday morning - then something is wrong!.

   

• Covenant 1,498 Posts

  Thu, Aug 6 2015 4:38 AM

  To be honest: who gives a flying fiddle when tehy get to champion or even tour champion? The incentive to get there is imply not there ( 250 credits is a joke) or completely unknown, because nobody knows what happens when you really get there.

  WGT counts on the fact its something new and people will do their best to reach the next level, and for that they have to spend money, al lot of money

• bhoese 679 Posts

  Thu, Aug 6 2015 5:46 AM

  alosso:

  bhoese:

  The program likely stops counting ranked rounds when saturation is reached.  Therefore, if the algorithm asks a question like "is RR=700 and AVG <= 58", which is the kind of question that a program likely asks, the answer will always be no.  Nobody will ever get promoted.

  The 700 was but a players' guess when we learned about the additional 200 rounds - and analogy ot the 400+100 situation for L => TL. Later, we learned about the probable 200+200 scenario and may now consider that 400 might be the new saturation. (I'm reluctant to believe so because I'd expect the number to rise).

  bhoese:

  If the new average is supposed to only consider 200 rounds, then what is stopping the players with low averages from promotion to Champion right now?

  It's "200 extra rounds", just like the 100 extras for the first TLs.

  If that were the case, previously saturated TLs would have floating averages.

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Thu, Aug 6 2015 6:04 AM

  hakman123:

  Also unsaturated TLs with more than 200 Ranked Rounds were treated the same way - with their worst 200 contributing RRs making up their new average

  I'm not sure it's only 200 rounds being used. Rather the last 200 bad scores you knocked off on your way to saturation were added back. I was about 10 games from saturation and got whacked with a 4 stroke increase. It's dropping like a rock now with every score under 33/66, just like it used to when you got saturated before.

• bhoese 679 Posts

  Thu, Aug 6 2015 6:11 AM

  Jimbog1964:

  bhoese:

  and some TLs with floating averages have reported that their averages are now only moving down.

  Look first of all thanks for your always v interesting, insightful and well thought out posting.

  Now just for the sake of not asking, unlikely needed i know, these are TL who play real RRs and hand in cards usually, not the has to be a 25 or don't hand it in brigade?

  Good post.  Whether I think the new tier is well doe or not I guess some are out there burning not cheap balls for the badge, and it's their time and money.   

  Hopefully a mod will comment on this one.......always hope, maybe (:

   

   

  Thanks for the kind words Jimbo.  

  It's a good thing that you brought up the players who only post low scores.  Jessica84's account provides an excellent example to prove that only the previous rounds 301-500 were retained in the new average.  No time to explain ATM, perhaps somebody can step in or I'll post about it after work today.

• hakman123 2,119 Posts

  Thu, Aug 6 2015 6:53 AM

  YankeeJim:

  hakman123:

  Also unsaturated TLs with more than 200 Ranked Rounds were treated the same way - with their worst 200 contributing RRs making up their new average

  I'm not sure it's only 200 rounds being used. Rather the last 200 bad scores you knocked off on your way to saturation were added back. I was about 10 games from saturation and got whacked with a 4 stroke increase. It's dropping like a rock now with every score under 33/66, just like it used to when you got saturated before.

  I am almost certain it is only 200 rounds being used - I had all my 333 RRs in a spread-sheet - so it was easy to simply call up the highest 200.  That gave me the exact average when adding the new score and deleting the 200th after maintenance. Now with successive rounds - adding the new round and deleting the highest in the 200 is still exactly the correct average.

  If I added a round and allowed the average to calculate on 201 rounds - it gets out of whack immediately.

  Plus - several players have tried posting high rounds and it does not modify the average.

  So we are saturated with 200 RRs.

• ColumbusStorm 3,417 Posts

  Thu, Aug 6 2015 7:14 AM

  hakman123:

  So we are saturated with 200 RRs.

  Therefore bhoese is right, nobody makes it to the Champion tier.

  Maybe in testing that is why iconian skipped straight to Tour Champion, could not get to Champion tier.

  So the fix will probably be everyone will need another 500 ranked rounds to get to the 700rr supposedly needed to be in Champion tier, and that is only after WGT fixes this problem.